July 9, 2020 / 2:25 PM / a month ago

U.S. natgas futures hit 2-month high ahead of storage report

    July 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to a two-month high on Thursday ahead of a federal
report expected to show a smaller-than-usual storage build last week.
    Traders noted the advance came on forecasts the weather will remain hotter-than-normal for the next
two weeks, keeping air conditioning demand high.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities likely injected 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during
the week ended July 3. That compares with an increase of 83 bcf during the same week last year and a
five-year (2015-19) average build of 68 bcf for the period.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.135 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 17.0% above the
five-year average of 2.679 tcf for this time of year. By the end of the injection season in October,
analysts expect U.S. inventories will reach a record high near 4.1 tcf.
    Front-month gas futures rose 5.4 cents, or 3.0%, to $1.878 per million British thermal units
at 10:06 a.m. EDT (1406 GMT). If the contract closes at that level it would be its highest settle since
May 7.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 88.1 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    As the weather heats up, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from 89.2 bcfd
this week to 90.7 bcfd next week.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just 3.1 bcfd (32% utilization) so far in
July, down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
Utilization was about 90% in 2019. Flows to Freeport LNG in Texas fell to zero for a third day in a row
the first time since July 2019 when its first liquefaction train was still in test mode.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                           Jul 3          June        Jul 3      average    
                                        (Forecast)     26(Actual)                 Jul 3     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +58            +65          +83         +68      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            2           4            3
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             255            252          227         206          200
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             256            253          229         210          203
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.4           88.1         87.9        90.9         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.4            6.6          6.7         5.8          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.8           94.7         94.7        96.7         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.4          2.4         2.5          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.4            5.4          5.5         5.2          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.1            3.1          3.1         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.6          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          38.9           42.6         43.8        40.3         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.3         21.5        21.4         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.4          4.3         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.0            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    74.4           78.3         79.7        76.3         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         86.3           89.2         90.7        89.9         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.78           1.76                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.76           1.78                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.64           2.62                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.34           1.34                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.81           1.80                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.70           1.69                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.01           1.94                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.51           1.45                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             30.75          16.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                34.75          27.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             24.00          22.88                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   24.75          14.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              40.58          25.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   31.00          25.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
  
 
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below