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Energy

U.S. natgas futures rise over 4% on higher LNG exports

    Oct 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 4% on Monday on forecasts for more demand
over the next two weeks than previously expected due to a rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
    Front-month gas futures rose 11.5 cents, or 4.7%, to $2.553 per million British thermal
units at 9:09 a.m. EDT (1309 GMT).
    Despite the rise in the futures, spot gas prices for Monday fell to their lowest in years in
several regions of the United States and Canada as mild weather and coronavirus demand destruction cut
usage of the fuel for heating and industrial purposes.
    Gas speculators, meanwhile, boosted their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and
Intercontinental Exchanges last week for a second week in three on expectations energy demand will rise
as the economy rebounds once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns.
    Those long positions came despite expectations stockpiles will hit record highs by the end of
October, reducing the chance of price spikes and gas shortages this winter.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.8 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd in September.
    Those production declines come as low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand
destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling so much that output from new
wells no longer offsets existing well declines.
    With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would slip from 86.8
bcfd this week to 86.4 bcfd next week. That, however, was higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 7.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September as vessels started to return to Cameron in Louisiana.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 2         Sep 25        Oct 2      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 2     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +77           +76          +102        +86 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             92             87           75          73          116
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             56             57           99          72           45
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             148           144          174         145          161
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.6           86.8         86.6        94.2         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.9           6.4          6.2         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.6           93.2         92.8       101.5         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.1          2.2         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.7          5.9         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.4           7.5          8.1         6.1          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.3           6.1          6.0         5.8          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.9           6.4          6.5         5.8          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.6           30.6         29.6        31.1         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.8           21.1         21.8        21.5         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.2          4.3         4.2          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.9          1.9         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.9           71.5         70.2        70.4         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        83.4           86.8         86.4        84.6         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.41           1.60                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.83           0.71                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.55           3.63                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.84           0.52                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.06           1.28                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        0.91           0.74                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.27           3.48                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.03           0.34 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             18.25         18.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                15.50         17.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             15.75         14.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   25.25         29.03                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              35.81         60.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   37.50         62.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
  
 
 
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