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Energy

U.S. natgas futures slip with cash prices on lower demand forecasts

    Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday as spot prices continued to trade
much lower than futures on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    That futures price decline occurred despite a projected increase in LNG exports, record sales to
Mexico and a drop in daily output to a 25-month low.
    On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery were down 3.2
cents, or 1.4%, to $2.216 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:10 a.m. EDT (1310 GMT).
    November futures, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 5 cents to $2.85 per
mmBtu. If November continues to trade at that level next week, it would put the front-month on track
for its highest close since November 2019.
    For the week, the front-month was up about 8% after falling almost 23% over the past three weeks.
    Next-day gas at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana has traded below front-month
futures since late August due mostly to weak demand along the Gulf Coast after a series of storms
reduced LNG exports.
    Data provider Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 82.4 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) this week to 84.6 bcfd next week and 85.3 bcfd in two weeks, with LNG exports
expected to climb. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Thursday, as an expected
increase in gas prices will cause some electric generators to burn more coal instead of gas to produce
power.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to reach 6.1 bcfd on Friday, up from a
two-week low of 3.9 bcfd on Tuesday, as vessels return to Gulf Coast terminals after Tropical Storm
Beta dissipated.
                                          
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 25        Sep 18        Sep 25     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 25    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +85           +66          +109        +78 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             68             58           37          52           80
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             82             91          137          91           66
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             150           149          174         143          146
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.4           85.6         84.9        93.7         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.7           5.5          6.0         8.1          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.2           91.1         90.9       101.8         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.0          2.0         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8           6.0          5.9         5.8          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.9           5.7          6.5         6.1          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.9           5.2          5.3         4.8          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.1           4.7          4.8         3.9          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         33.8           31.0         32.2        33.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.5           21.6         21.8        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.2          4.2         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.7           68.7         70.3        69.9         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.4           82.4         84.6        84.3         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.49           1.74                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.17           1.28                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.64           3.75                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.10           1.25                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.50           1.74                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.30           1.42                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.00           2.88                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.07           1.40 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             21.25         26.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                19.50         20.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             17.25         20.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   29.75         26.50                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              35.50         42.38                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   38.50         38.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Paul Simao)
  
 
 
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