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Energy

U.S. natgas jumps over 5% as producers shut wells ahead of Hurricane Delta

    Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained more than 5% on Wednesday as producers shut wells
in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Delta, cutting output, and on forecasts for more demand over
the next two weeks than previously expected.
    That move higher came despite worries Delta could cut liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as
happened with Hurricane Laura in late August. Actual LNG exports, however, were at their highest since
April.
    Delta is expected to slam into Louisiana as a major hurricane on Friday.
    Front-month gas futures were up 12.8 cents, or 5.1%, to $2.648 per million British thermal
units (mmBtu) at 9:09 a.m. EDT (1309 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since
August.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to drop from a
four-month low of 84.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday to a 26-month low of 83.3 bcfd on
Wednesday as Gulf Coast producers shut in wells. That data is preliminary and subject to change later
in the day.
    The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms shut in 0.2 bcfd, or 9%,
of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas production.
    With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would slip from 87.0
bcfd this week to 86.8 bcfd next week. That, however, was higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Tuesday.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September, now that Cameron in Louisiana exited an outage caused by Hurricane Laura. Traders
noted exports should rise further next week when Cove Point in Maryland is expected to exit its
maintenance outage.
    In the spot market, next-day gas at the PG&E Gate NG-CG-PGE-SNL in Northern California rose more
than $4 per mmBtu to its highest since March 2019.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 2         Sep 25        Oct 2      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 2     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +77           +76          +102        +86 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             104            97           75          73          124
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             55             55           99          72           42
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             159           152          174         145          166
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.6           86.0         86.2        94.2         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.9           6.7          6.5         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.6           92.7         92.7       101.5         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.2          2.2         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          5.9         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.4           7.4          8.6         6.1          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.3           6.0          5.9         5.8          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.9           6.2          6.2         5.8          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.6           31.0         30.0        31.1         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.8           22.1         21.8        21.5         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3           4.2          4.3         4.2          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.9          1.9         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.9           71.5         70.0        70.4         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        83.4           87.0         86.8        84.6         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.86           1.92                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.15           1.10                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.00           3.93                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.09           0.99                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.55           1.47                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.35           1.31                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.24           4.06                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.61           0.17 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.25         23.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                22.25         19.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             28.00         23.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   43.08         37.64                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              55.00         41.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   44.50         47.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Paul Simao)
  
 
 
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