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Energy

U.S. natgas rebounds on warmer weather view ahead of storage report

    Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday on warmer weather forecasts and as investors
awaited a federal storage report expected to show a below-normal build last week after Hurricane Laura cut
production.
    Front-month gas futures rose 6.1 cents, or 2.5%, to $2.547 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu) by 9:26 a.m. EDT (1326 GMT). On Wednesday, prices fell to a near one-week low of $2.415 mmBtu.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities injected 34 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended
August 28. That compares with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19)
average build of 66 bcf.
    "Some of the cooler forecasts in the mid-west are turning a little bit warmer and that's giving the
market a little bit of support," Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, said.
    Prices could bounce if the EIA reports a smaller build than the market expects, Flynn said, adding "and
there could possibly be a surprise (in the report) because of the production shutdowns."
    Hurricane Laura, which landed as a major Category 4 storm near the Texas-Louisiana border last week had
knocked 60% of natural gas offshore production. 
    Refinitiv data indicated 148 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks,
increasing from 144 CDDs the previous day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is
above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and
businesses.  
    Demand in the Lower 48 is expected to decline slightly, falling from 85.4 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) this week to 84.3 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv.
    Meanwhile, producers were ramping up output after there was no significant damage to offshore production
facilities from the storm.
            
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago      Five-year     
                                          Aug 28         Aug 21       Aug 28    average Aug 28   
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                                 
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +34            +45          +77            +66 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                              
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year Norm    30-Year Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              17             20           9             20              21
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             148            144          174            139            129
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             165            164          183            159            150 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                           
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week Last    Five-Year
                                                                                     Year        Average For Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.0           87.5         87.7          92.7            79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.1            6.3          6.9            7.7            8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0            0.0            0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.1           93.8         94.6          100.4           87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.8            2.0          2.0            3.1            2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.3            6.2          6.0            5.5            4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.8            2.9          4.4            6.5            2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.6          4.7            4.5            4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.6            3.7          3.8            3.6            3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.4           38.1         35.5          33.9            36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.5         21.7          21.5            20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3            4.3            4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.0          1.9            2.1            2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1            0.1            0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.6           74.3         72.0          70.0            71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.6           85.4         84.3          85.1            80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                              
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                                 
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.15           2.22                                   
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.74           1.36                                   
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.59           3.64                                   
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.54           1.24                                   
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.17           2.08                                   
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.64           1.45                                   
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           3.17           2.85                                   
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.91           1.70 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                            
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                                 
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             29.50          21.25                                   
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                28.00          26.25                                   
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             25.50          27.25                                   
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   105.00         32.20                                   
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              97.00          46.42                                   
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   78.00          33.75                                   
 
 (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
  
 
 
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