(Adds investor comment after stocks move higher)
NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Major Wall Street stock indexes recovered on Tuesday afternoon and hit session highs in late trading, bouncing back after an initial 2.0-percent drop.
Between the day’s highs and lows, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in an almost 1,000-point range.
Following are comments from analysts and investors:
ALICIA LEVINE, HEAD OF GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY, BNY MELLON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK:
“Despite violent moves in the last couple days in the market, fundamentals in the economy are very strong and it’s not just the U.S., it’s throughout the global economy. So, we’ve just seen an uptick in growth in Europe, Japan has been strong, emerging markets are strong, and of course we’re getting higher growth in the U.S. The fundamentals are very strong. This is not 2008 where there was a dislocation in credit markets and leverage that was threatening the entire system. What we think happened is that price velocity on the upside got completely disconnected from how markets behave. It’s a little like what happened with Bitcoin, though not to the same extreme. There’s a coherence of price action and when you get 440 days of trading without a 1 percent down day, you’re at risk for a correction.”
JJ KINAHAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT TD AMERITRADE IN CHICAGO:
“We were all talking about this 10-percent correction, I don’t think anybody thought it would happen over three trading days. It is probably healthy long-term for the market.
“I don’t think the volatility is over. These types of moves tend to take about three weeks to get through the system. People review their portfolios, they start reallocating. And volatility just doesn’t suddenly settle down. So I wouldn’t be very surprised if we weren’t seeing intraday volatility last for the next two to three weeks.
“Those who had shorter-term investments were looking as to when to take some profits, they wanted to wait until 2018 because of the tax rate change and they got their excuse to do so ... The earnings season has played into it, by that I mean it’s been a great earnings season but it has been very difficult to understand because of the tax stuff. Or if you have this windfall what are you doing with this money.”
“I think this market will bounce back probably. Eventually, you get through this little panic thing ... Ironically, even though I am bearish and we have a lot of hedges on, I am not that bearish.”
“The market is really not a place for the average person to be playing around with derivatives ... Today, you have these triple-leveraged ETFs (exchange-trade funds) that are crazy.”
JOHN LYNCH, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT LPL FINANCIAL IN CHARLOTTE, N.C.
“It’s been a crazy period and today the market is probably just trying to find some footing. I’d like to think the complexity of some of these leverage trades are working their way through the markets and it would appear with the 10-year holding firm yesterday afternoon and today, that would suggest to me we are getting close. A much welcomed event.
“Wage news surprised investors, which transitioned to fear the next Fed chair would potentially be more aggressive than originally anticipated. Then, once rates started moving, that kind of exposed some of these levered short VIX sales.
“One of the things I have been emphasizing to our investors is this is happening in the context of an uptrend on equities, positive revisions to forecasts on economic growth and positive revisions to earnings calculations for 2018 and 2019 ...
“You have to focus on the fundamentals and just look for a steadying influence like today, hopefully. Not that a 700-point round trip is steadying.”
TREVOR GREETHAM, HEAD OF MULTI ASSET AT ROYAL LONDON ASSET MANAGEMENT IN LONDON
“When you get these periods of intense panic it makes sense to be buying while others are forced sellers but on the other hand you don’t know that the negative mood will go away quickly.
“The last time we had that degree of panic was August 2015 which was the first of the two Chinese devaluations. At that time, it took about eight weeks before the market digested the bad news and started rallying again ... The trick is not to rush on both feet but to be buying gradually during the more intense negative days.”
ERIC WINOGRAD, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN IN NEW YORK
“The correction we are seeing is not economically significant at this point. The stock market is basically flat year-to-date and up significantly over any longer time horizon. The underlying economy is strong and over time that should provide support to the market.
“That said, we don’t expect a repeat performance from the stock market in 2018. We expect interest rates to rise across the curve, driven in part by mounting inflationary pressures as reflected in last month’s wage increases.
“Higher interest rates will make it harder for the stock market to sustain lofty valuations and so we expect a lower return and higher volatility from the equity market this year.”
JANNA SAMPSON, CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT OAKBROOK INVESTMENTS LLC IN LISLE, ILLINOIS
“”We’re bouncing around here. The market clearly hasn’t decided what the sentiment for the day is.”
MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS IN BOSTON
“What is happening is you continue to have investors re-rating stocks based on higher inflation and higher interest rate expectations.
“There was heavy, heavy positions in long equities, short Treasuries, short dollar, low volatility and as this has changed, some of those players are certainly getting out of those positions and it is exacerbating some of the volatility.
“The other thing is, certainly we have a government shutdown pending, and even with the correction nobody is really talking about it. But that is certainly upcoming here, many are expecting a deal will be struck or they will kick the can down the road until March ... Also this transition in Fed leadership, until we see what Powell policy is, the markets aren’t likely to give the Fed the benefit of the doubt until they see what is going to happen in terms of policy.”
BRENT SCHUTTE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO
“We think that this is a correction, not the start of a recession. Recessions cause prolonged market downturns, corrections occur when people are positioned wrongly, with their repositioning causing a sharp but often short pullback.
“You had people positioned for an environment of lots of central bank easing, low inflation and interest rates and importantly low volatility. Now they are having to shift to an environment that looks like you’ll have less central bank easing, rising inflation, rising interest rates and rising volatility.
“In the short term, the economy and the markets can diverge like they have over the past few days, but in the intermediate term they move in tandem and I continue to believe the global economy will push higher and eventually pull the markets with it.”
MICHAEL ANTONELLI, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL SALES TRADING AT ROBERT W. BAIRD IN MILWAUKEE
“What we saw yesterday was the death of the short volatility trade. For the longest time, people had been shorting volatility. That trade started to crack on Friday because the market started to sell off. Yesterday the trade died because the market imploded.
“If this is just the implosion of shorting volatility, it’s not the end of the bull market. People will be afraid now of shorting volatility. It’ll change the complexion of the market. It takes away what many considered to be easy money.”
Compiled by Nick Zieminski in New York; Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, Kate Duguid, Shounak Dasgupta, Danilo Masoni, Sinead Carew, Lewis Krauskopf and April Joyner