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Agamoni Ghosh

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks, currencies fall on global growth concerns

2:56pm GMT

* Weak economic data from Europe and U.S. hit EM assets * Brazil assets continue to slide on Temer arrest * Pemex may get new capital injection from public fund By Agamoni Ghosh March 22 Latin American stocks and currencies fell on Friday as investors piled on to safe-heaven assets after weak data from Europe and the United States compounded worries about global growth. German manufacturing contracted further in March and economic activity slowed in France and the euro zone overall, surveys showed on Friday. MSCI's index of Latin American currencies fell 1.5 percent as the greenback recovered sharply against the euro after the data. "Today's downside surprise in European PMIs was not part of the plan and has put EUR under renewed pressure, strengthening USD and weakening EM currencies," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. U.S. manufacturing data was lower than expected, causing the U.S. Treasury curve to invert. An inverted yield curve is widely understood to be a leading indicator of recession. Brazil's real and stocks on the Bovespa led losses across assets in the region, sliding over 2 percent each with additional pressure continuing from the previous session after the arrest of former President Michel Temer. Investors perceive that the arrest of Temer on graft charges will shift political focus to the former president and slow proposed pension reform seen as critical to injecting life into a tepid economic recovery. Temer, who left office on Jan. 1, is accused of leading a "criminal organization" that took in 1.8 billion reais ($472 million) in a bribery and kickback scheme related to the construction of a nuclear power complex. "We anticipate volatility, with a tough negotiation process ahead for pension reform, and a series of risks that can increase tension, " analysts from XP Investments wrote in note. Mexican stocks fell about a percent while the peso slipped to a seven-week low as crude prices extended losses and as investors continued to be worried about the effect of debt-laden oil-firm Pemex on the economy. Mexico's deputy finance minister said on Thursday the government was considering using part of a $15.4 billion public income stabilization fund to pay some debt obligations for heavily leveraged state-oil company Pemex . Investors see the frequent capital injections into Pemex from other parts of the government's coffers as a temporary fix, which they believe is not going to solve the problem for the state-oil company's dismal financial condition. Chile's peso fell 1.6 percent tracking a decline in the price of copper, the country's top export, while stocks on the IPSA index hovered around its lowest levels since the beginning of January. Colombia's peso moved further away from five-month highs, while local stocks fell for the first time in ten sessions. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1430 GMT Stock indexes daily % Latest change MSCI Emerging Markets 1061.09 -0.8 MSCI LatAm 2747.70 -3.08 Brazil Bovespa 94745.13 -2.05 Mexico IPC 42923.68 -0.76 Chile IPSA 5225.79 -0.68 Argentina MerVal 33587.12 -1.75 Colombia IGBC 13275.51 -0.71 Currencies daily % change Latest Brazil real 3.8845 -2.23 Mexico peso 19.0510 -0.99 Chile peso 677.3 -1.17 Colombia peso 3122.85 -1.16 Peru sol 3.295 -0.24 Argentina peso 42.1400 -2.16 (interbank) (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh; Additional reporting by Camila Moreira Editing by Susan Thomas)

EMERGING MARKETS-Currencies slump on global growth fears; stocks mixed

10:17am GMT

March 22 Emerging-market currencies fell on Friday after weak data from Europe re-affirmed fears over global growth, wiping out much of the support the Federal Reserve provided earlier in the week with its accommodating monetary policy.

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil assets slump on Temer arrest, Latam FX falls

21 Mar 2019

By Agamoni Ghosh March 21 Latin American currencies fell on Thursday as the U.S. dollar recovered a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned projections for any interest rate hikes this year, while Brazil assets slumped after the surprise arrest of former President Michel Temer. MSCI's index for Latin American currencies fell 0.5 percent despite most emerging market assets reacting positively to the accommodative stance in monetary policy from the Fed as the dollar came off two-week lows. Brazil's real as well as stock markets led falls across the region after Temer, who left office three months ago, was arrested as part of a sweeping anti-corruption investigation known as "Car Wash." Temer was president from 2016 to 2018, taking office following the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, for whom he served as vice president for six years. "The ex-president's arrest seems to be affecting the immediate moves but overall the Fed policy has been good for emerging market currencies," said William Jackson, chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics in London. Aiding the real's fall was the central bank's decision on Wednesday to maintain its benchmark interest rate at a record low 6.50 percent, while noting that recent economic data had been weaker than expected. The Bovespa was further dragged lower by financial stocks as the military austerity plan presented to Congress disappointed and is estimated to generate much lower net savings per year than earlier thought. The bill is the final piece of a pension reform overhaul proposed by President Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain, aimed at saving over 1 trillion reais in a decade. Mexico's peso came off five-month lows as the dollar recovered and after ratings agency Fitch reduced its 2019 forecast for Mexico's economic growth to 1.6 percent from 2.1 percent on Wednesday. Stocks on the IPC index were marginally higher. Colombia's peso firmed 0.2 percent, while local stocks tacked a shade lower. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at GMT Stock indexes daily % Latest change MSCI Emerging Markets 1068.49 -0.08 MSCI LatAm 2822.19 -1.64 Brazil Bovespa 96052.18 -2.03 Mexico IPC 43326.19 0.39 Chile IPSA 5252.85 0.15 Argentina MerVal 34619.30 -0.36 Colombia IGBC 13324.72 -0.02 Currencies daily % change Latest Brazil real 3.8186 -1.40 Mexico peso 18.8447 -0.09 Chile peso 666.1 -0.62 Colombia peso 3075.75 0.35 Peru sol 3.294 -0.06 Argentina peso 40.7700 0.29 (interbank) (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

RPT-UPDATE 1-No Fed boost for European stocks as banks fall, but chipmakers shine

21 Mar 2019

March 21 European stock markets fell on Thursday as fears over economic growth and the impact on banks of an accommodative policy message from the U.S. Federal Reserve outweighed any broader lift from its abandoning of further interest rate hikes this year.

UPDATE 1-No Fed boost for European stocks as banks fall; chipmakers shine

21 Mar 2019

* Dublin stocks fall on Brexit worries (Updates prices, adds market comment)

EMERGING MARKETS-Fed boost for EM stocks as trade worries weigh

21 Mar 2019

March 21 Emerging market stocks hit their highest in almost seven months on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve brought an abrupt halt to its cycle of interest rate rises, although concerns over U.S.-China trade talks and slowing global growth limited gains.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks fall ahead of Fed meeting, forex mixed

20 Mar 2019

By Agamoni Ghosh March 20 Latin American stocks fell in broad-based declines on Wednesday as investors avoided riskier assets ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision and outlook later in the day. Currencies in the region were mixed, with the dollar steady as traders awaited the Fed, which is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged and offer clues on the direction of rates. "Conditions are not right for a rate rise today, but they probably will be later this year," said Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note. Last year, emerging market assets saw significant outflows due to the steady rise in U.S. borrowing rates. MSCI's index for Latin American stocks fell 0.6 percent tracking global equities, led by declines on the Bovespa which was dragged down by shares of financial and material companies. Brazil's real fell 0.1 percent, snapping a three-day gaining streak ahead of a meeting of the country's central bank policy-setting committee. A Reuters poll of 21 economists showed that the central bank will keep rates on hold at 6.50 percent this week, almost exactly a year after it was cut to a record low, with signs pointing to it staying there for most of 2019. "The room for rate cuts very much depends on passing the pension reform," said analysts from Citi in a note. "Considering the recent price action, the market might be disappointed by a lack of dovish signals. But any pullback will be limited in our view," the note added. This will be the first meeting to be presided over by new central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto, who succeeded Ilan Goldfajn on Feb. 26. Mexican stocks were marginally lower with shares of Cemex, one of the world's largest cement producers falling over 1 percent after an unimpressive 2019 outlook. The country's peso rose for a fourth-straight session. Chile's peso rose marginally, while stocks on the IPSA index fell 0.5 percent dragged by steel maker CAP. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1500 GMT Latin American market prices from Reuters Stock indexes daily % Latest change MSCI Emerging Markets 1068.55 -0.22 MSCI LatAm 2876.16 -0.64 Brazil Bovespa 99199.77 -0.39 Mexico IPC 42298.51 -0.19 Chile IPSA 5278.61 -0.51 Argentina MerVal 34883.90 1.49 Colombia IGBC 13175.31 0.05 Currencies daily % Latest change Brazil real 3.7906 -0.06 Mexico peso 18.9337 0.42 Chile peso 666.2 0.09 Colombia peso 3093.45 0.09 Peru sol 3.296 0.06 Argentina peso (interbank) 41.2000 -1.58 (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh Editing by Susan Thomas)

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies rise on Fed expectations; stocks mixed

19 Mar 2019

By Agamoni Ghosh March 19 Latin American currencies rose against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, on expectations that U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers will not hike interest rates at this week's two-day policy meeting. Stocks in the region were mixed. MSCI's index of Latin American currencies gained, as the dollar neared a two-week low on bets that the Fed will eschew any more rate hikes for the time being, with U.S. and global growth slowing. Last year, emerging market currencies saw significant outflows due to the steady rise in U.S. borrowing rates. "The markets are pricing in only one hike this year," said Christian Lawrence, senior market strategist, LatAm FX, Rabobank. "The risk though will be if they aren't as dovish as expected, then we will see a big sell-off in the EM space," he added. Higher oil prices also helped currencies for net crude exporters in the region with Mexico's peso rising 0.2 percent. Pemex, Mexico's debt-laden state oil company, said it planned to triple the number of wells it will drill this year, in a bid to grow crude output and reverse more than a decade of declining production. Pemex, which holds the largest debt of any Latin American oil company, was downgraded by rating agencies S&P and Fitch this year, leading to concern about Mexico's sovereign credit rating. "Yes, this a positive development but don't think we can say all of Pemex's troubles have gone away. The energy market there needs much more foreign investments and experiences ones," said Lawrence. The Mexican stock market which resumed trade after a long weekend rose over 1 percent led by Latin American carrier America Movil after the company said it will acquire 100 percent of Nextel's Brazil operations. Stocks in Argentina and Colombia rose. Sao Paulo-traded stocks eased off record high levels dragged by financial and material stocks. Rumo dropped over 5 percent after the logistics company adjusted its 2019 outlook citing new accounting standards. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1440 GMT Stock indexes daily % Latest change MSCI Emerging Markets 1070.49 0.12 MSCI LatAm 2894.44 0.71 Brazil Bovespa 99685.20 -0.31 Mexico IPC 42598.07 0.96 Chile IPSA 5321.81 -0.05 Argentina MerVal 35501.87 1.41 Colombia IGBC 13162.94 0.42 Currencies daily % change Latest Brazil real 3.7815 0.23 Mexico peso 19.0381 0.10 Chile peso 665.8 0.10 Colombia peso 3097.28 0.05 Peru sol 3.302 -0.09 Argentina peso 40.0000 0.23 (interbank) (Reporting by Agamoni Ghosh in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)

EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging market stocks, currencies jump on trade optimism

15 Mar 2019

* Russia's rouble rises on higher oil prices and tax payments

EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging market stocks fall as Brexit vote sours mood

13 Mar 2019

March 13 Emerging market stocks fell on Wednesday as investors stayed away from riskier assets ahead of more make-or-break British parliamentary votes on Brexit.

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