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Julien Ponthus

REFILE-GLOBAL MARKETS-Trade war caution takes edge off stellar rally in world stocks

08 Nov 2019

LONDON, Nov 8 Uncertainty about the fate of U.S./China trade talks nudged world stock markets off 21-month highs on Friday after what has proved to be stellar week for risk assets.

GLOBAL MARKETS-U.S.-China trade war keeps markets on their toes

08 Nov 2019

LONDON, Nov 8 Uncertainty about the fate of the trade negotiations between the United States and China kept markets on their toes on Friday, with European stocks benchmarks mimicking their Asian peers and retreating from the previous session's highs.

UK's winter election - What's in it for markets?

31 Oct 2019

LONDON British financial markets reacted calmly on Wednesday to the prospect of a snap election before Christmas after a fractious UK parliament finally agreed to a nationwide poll on Dec 12 that may help break the political deadlock over Brexit.

RPT-SCENARIOS-UK's winter election: What's in it for markets?

31 Oct 2019

LONDON, Oct 30 British financial markets reacted calmly on Wednesday to the prospect of a snap election before Christmas after a fractious UK parliament finally agreed to a nationwide poll on Dec 12 that may help break the political deadlock over Brexit.

Brexit stumble slightly dents pound's euphoria as trading resumes

20 Oct 2019

LONDON Sterling slipped half a percent as world currency markets opened for the first time since the UK parliament delayed a crucial vote on a Brexit withdrawal agreement.

Brexit stumble to dent euphoric pound but bulk of gains to hold

20 Oct 2019

LONDON, Oct 20 Britain's latest Brexit stumble is likely to prompt a pullback in sterling's recent rally when trading resumes later on Sunday, though strategists say rising confidence that a disorderly European Union exit will be avoided should limit any sell-off.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Sterling falters as Brexit approaches its endgame

16 Oct 2019

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh * Brexit negotiations resume in Brussels * Pound edges lower * European stocks dip * European third-quarter earnings seen falling 3.7% y-o-y * U.S. sanctions hit Turkish markets (Updates prices, adds Brexit developments) By Julien Ponthus LONDON, Oct 16 Sterling came off five-month highs and stocks traded sideways on Wednesday as the European Union and Britain sought to avert a disorderly Brexit before an EU summit on Thursday. Hopes of a breakthrough lifted markets on Tuesday, but investors turned more cautious after looking for a deal during the night that never came. Conflicting reports about the ongoing talks triggered a series of sharp moves on the pound. Reports that Germany might use emergency measures to counter any market panic from a hard Brexit, such as banning bets on falling share prices, also weighed on morale. "Most of the good news that could have been anticipated has been priced in, and now there's caution it seems on whether we get a deal today or not," said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg. Sterling was down 0.4% against the dollar with investors trading volatility levels not seen since the 2016 June Brexit referendum. The pound had strengthened by close to 5% over the past week as investors rushed to reprice the prospect of a last-minute Brexit deal before the Oct. 31 deadline. Euro zone government bonds were also volatile on Wednesday as investors watched the eleventh-hour talks. German 10-year government bond yields were last flat at -0.42%, after reaching an 11-week high of -0.397% as Bunds extended a sell-off that began on Tuesday. British government 10-year bond yields were down 2.7 basis points at 0.67%, unaffected by data showing inflation in September reached 1.7% year-on-year, below market expectations. The pan-European STOXX 600 retreated 0.1%, but Britain's domestically focused midcaps, a gauge of Brexit anxiety, fell 0.8%. Ireland's ISEQ, another vulnerable index, lost 0.6%. Earlier, shares rose in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.5%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe was flat. "Even though we are most optimistic that a deal does happen, we don't think the most likely outcome is that it happens by October 31, so you would be looking at some form of extension and potentially elections," said, Andrew Sheets, chief cross asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. Third-quarter earnings are expected to show an overall decline in earnings, which could also weigh on morale, Sheets said. Morgan Stanley had a below-consensus view on how companies would fare this quarter, he said. Europe's companies are struggling with uncertainties ranging from Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war to Germany's manufacturing recession. Companies listed on the STOXX 600 index are now expected to report a decline in third-quarter earnings of as much as 3.7%, worse than the 3% expected a week ago, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv. Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that China will struggle to buy $50 billion of U.S. farm goods annually unless it removes retaliatory tariffs on American products, which would require reciprocal action by U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday. Global gross domestic product is now expected grow 3% in 2019, the IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook projections, down from 3.2% in a July forecast, largely because of global trade friction. U.S. stocks, which typically track the ups and downs of the trade war, were set to open in the red. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.3%. In commodities, Brent crude shed about 0.1 cent to $58.66 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 10 cents to $52.91 after falling the day before over fears the trade war would keep squeezing the global economy. In emerging markets, Turkey's Halkbank saw its shares and bonds plunge after U.S. prosecutors charged the state-owned lender with taking part in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran. A day earlier, Washington had imposed sanctions on Turkish officials, raised tariffs and halted trade talks after Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in a campaign again Kurdish fighters. Before Turkish markets opened, authorities banned short selling on seven large Turkish bank stocks, including Halkbank. Selling shares in the banks only to buy them later in the session was also banned, authorities said. (Reporting by Julien Ponthus, Marc Jones and Olga Cotaga; editing by Larry King)

GLOBAL MARKETS-Markets falter as Brexit approaches its endgame

16 Oct 2019

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh * Brexit negotiations resume in Brussels * Pound edges lower * European stocks dip on open * European third-quarter earnings seen falling 3.7% y-o-y-Refinitiv * U.S. sanctions hit Turkish markets By Julien Ponthus LONDON, Oct 16 European equities opened lower and sterling came off five-month highs on Wednesday as the European Union and Britain resumed talks in Brussels to avert a disorderly Brexit before an EU summit on Thursday and Friday. Hopes of a breakthrough lifted markets on Tuesday, but investors turned more cautious stance after looking for a deal during the night that never came. "Most of the good news that could have been anticipated has been priced in, and now there's caution it seems on whether we get a deal today or not," said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg. The pound was down 0.5% against the dollar with investors trading volatility levels not seen since the 2016 June Brexit referendum. The pound had strengthened by close to 5% over the past week as investors rushed to reprice the prospect of a last-minute Brexit deal before the Oct. 31 deadline. The pan-European STOXX 600 retreated 0.3%. Britain's domestically focused midcaps, a gauge of Brexit anxiety, fell 1%. Earlier, shares rose in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.5%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe was flat. "Even though we are most optimistic that a deal does happen, we don't think the most likely outcome is that it happens by October 31, so you would be looking at some form of extension and potentially elections," said, Andrew Sheets, chief cross asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. Third-quarter earnings are expected to show an overall decline in earnings, which could also weigh on morale, Sheets said. Morgan Stanley had a below-consensus view on how companies would fare this quarter, he said. Europe's companies are struggling with uncertainties ranging from Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war to Germany's manufacturing recession. Companies listed on the STOXX 600 index are now expected to report a decline in third-quarter earnings of as much as 3.7%, worse than the 3% expected a week ago, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv. Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that China will struggle to buy $50 billion of U.S. farm goods annually unless it removes retaliatory tariffs on American products, which would require reciprocal action by U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday. Global gross domestic product is now expected grow 3% in 2019, the IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook projections, down from 3.2% in a July forecast, largely because of global trade friction. In commodities, Brent crude shed about 0.1 cent to $58.66 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 10 cents to $52.91 after falling the day before over fears the trade war would keep squeezing the global economy. In emerging markets, Turkey's Halkbank saw its shares and bonds plunge after U.S. prosecutors charged the state-owned lender with taking part in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran. A day earlier, Washington had imposed sanctions on Turkish officials, raised tariffs and halted trade talks after Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in a campaign again Kurdish fighters. Before Turkish markets opened, authorities banned short selling on seven large Turkish bank stocks, including Halkbank. Selling shares in the banks only to buy them later in the session was also banned, authorities said. (Reporting by Julien Ponthus and Marc Jones, editing by Larry King)

Corbyn-proof? British water, power firms take nationalisation precautions

29 Apr 2019

LONDON British water and power firms are trying to soothe nerves over nationalisation in the event of a Labour government, although some fund managers and lawyers doubt so-called Corbyn-proofing will work.

EZB & Co unter Reformdruck - "Rätsel niedrige Inflation"

20 Mar 2019

Berlin/London An der Schwelle zu einem neuen Jahrzehnt stehen die großen Notenbanken vor der Notwendigkeit, ihren Kompass neu zu justieren.

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