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K. Sathya Narayanan

Gold adrift as U.S. tariff deadline approaches

5:10am GMT

Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as investors waited to see if the United States would slap fresh tariffs on Chinese goods this weekend, while palladium continued its record run on fears of a deepening supply deficit.

PRECIOUS-Gold adrift as U.S. tariff deadline approaches

5:09am GMT

(Adds comments, updates prices) * Markets eye UK election, ECB policy meeting later in the day * U.S. dollar falls to lowest since early August * GRAPHIC-2019 asset returns: http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl By K. Sathya Narayanan Dec 12 Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as investors waited to see if the United States would slap fresh tariffs on Chinese goods this weekend, while palladium continued its record run on fears of a deepening supply deficit. Spot gold was flat at $1,474.71 per ounce, as of 0453 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3 % at $1,479 per ounce. "The key issue for many markets in the near-term is the trade negotiations between China and the U.S. Both Beijing and Washington have indicated the worst-case scenario is the tariffs would be delayed," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. "If we saw tariffs introduced on Sunday, that would be a real positive for gold," he added. The bullion is often seen as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with top advisers on Thursday about planned Dec. 15 tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods, three sources familiar with the plans said. In the previous session, bullion rose as much as 1% to its highest since Dec. 5 after the U.S. central bank kept benchmark interest rates unchanged and signalled borrowing costs will not change anytime soon. Higher U.S. interest rates weigh on non-yielding bullion by increasing its opportunity cost and also support the dollar. The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest since early August after Fed dashed hopes of rate hikes any time soon. "The Fed reiterating its accommodative stance lent itself the idea that there wont be any pressure from declining money supply or lifting of rates," McCarthy said. "With the Fed possibly expanding the balance sheet again in 2020 ... gold should be a regular feature in one's asset allocation during periods of market uncertainty, especially when interest rates are low," AxiTrader market strategist Stephen Innes said in a note. Investors were also focused on UK election that will pave the way for Brexit and Christine Lagarde's first meeting of the European Central Bank later in the day. Elsewhere, palladium was up 0.1% at $1,911.84 an ounce. Plagued by supply deficit, the autocatalyst metal notched an all-time high of $1,918.50 earlier in the session. The metal surpassed $1,900 for the first time ever on Tuesday as mines across South Africa shut down after flash flooding triggered the most severe power blackouts in more than a decade, threatening a key export sector. Platinum slipped 0.2% to $936.60 per ounce, while silver was up 0.2% at $16.89 per ounce. (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

PRECIOUS-Gold stalls ahead of Fed policy statement, tariffs deadline

11 Dec 2019

(Updates prices) * Markets await FOMC statement later in the day * Trade negotiators push for a delay in Dec. tariffs - WSJ * GRAPHIC-2019 asset returns: http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl By K. Sathya Narayanan Dec 11 Gold was little changed on Wednesday as market activity remained largely subdued ahead of the U.S. central bank's economic policy statement and a fast-approaching tariffs deadline, while palladium hovered near previous session's record high. Spot gold gained 0.1% to $1,465.18 per ounce as of 0741 GMT. U.S. gold futures were also up 0.1% at $1,469.50. "The market is in a holding pattern. Stocks, oil, currencies and gold are awaiting the events that are coming in the second half of the week," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA. The Federal Reserve will issue a statement on its December policy meeting later in the day. Although the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors are eager to hear its outlook for the economy, mainly hit by the U.S.-China trade war. "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will update the dot-plot, so that will be closely watched," Halley said. "If they provide a more dovish outlook, that would potentially weaken the dollar, which will be positive for gold." On the trade front, investors maintained a cautious stance as U.S. President Donald Trump has to decide whether to impose tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods just weeks before Christmas. The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday reported that trade negotiators on both sides were planning to delay the December tariffs. "Should both parties fail to reach positive consensus, gold prices will receive strength over lacklustre risk appetites for the near term," Phillip Futures analyst Benjamin Lu said in a note. On the technical front, signals are mixed for spot gold as it kept bouncing towards a resistance at $1,466 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. The palladium gained 0.2% to $1,899.67 an ounce, having surged past the key level of $1,900 an ounce for the first time on Tuesday. Speculative buying and a mine closure in major producer South Africa have supported palladium prices, which are expected to rise further in the longer term, a trader from Japan-based retailer Tokuriki Honten Co. said. Mines across South Africa were shutting down after a largest power blackout in more than a decade, with some major players forced to cut production. The news had also supported platinum prices, which rose as much as 3% in the last session, the most since at least early September. On Wednesday, the metal fell 0.5%, to $916.93 per ounce. Silver slipped 0.1% to $16.64 per ounce. (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Arun Koyyur)

PRECIOUS-Gold softens as trade deal signs boost equities, dollar

27 Nov 2019

* U.S. Fed to issue Beige Book of economic conditions at 1900 GMT

PRECIOUS-Gold edges off 2-week lows as Sino-U.S. trade caution lingers

26 Nov 2019

(Updates prices) * Palladium touches highest in three weeks * GRAPHIC-2019 asset returns: http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl By K. Sathya Narayanan Nov 26 Gold edged higher from a two-week low hit earlier on Tuesday after data showed U.S. consumer confidence slipped in November, with investors eager for more details on the long-awaited trade agreement between the United States and China. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,461.51 an ounce as of 1:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December settled up 0.2% at $1,460.30. U.S. consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November. Gold earlier in the day touched its lowest level since Nov. 12 at $1,450.30, having posted losses in the previous four sessions. "The only story here is the China-U.S. (trade deal). Last few sessions, gold has been selling off on hopes for a U.S.-China deal. Right now, gold is paused here and is in kind of a wait-and-see (mode)," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The United States and China are close to agreement on the first phase of a trade deal, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after top negotiators from the two countries spoke by telephone and agreed to keep working on remaining issues. "The talk on the streets is that the phase one deal is going to be a non-event. People believe that there would be a deal but very little substance in it," said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors. "The market is going to be wandering around aimlessly for another week or two until we get more information out of the Federal Reserve coming into December and the China trade deal." However, despite optimism in the market about a conclusion to the protracted trade war between the world's two largest economies, analysts believe that gold is going to remain bullish in the longer term. Speculators increased their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver in the week to Nov. 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. "The reason why you are seeing CFTC positions increasing is because people are looking long-term and are worried about equities being too hot right now," Haberkorn said. "They are concerned about a large sell-off in equities with how high they have gone so fast." Wall Street's three main indexes hit all-time highs on Tuesday. Safe-haven bullion has gained over 13% so far this year. Elsewhere, silver rose 1.1% to $17.09 per ounce. Palladium gained 0.7% to $1,810.44, having earlier touched its highest since Nov. 4, while platinum climbed 1.3% to $908.70. (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru Editing by Marguerita Choy, Sandra Maler and Nick Zieminski)

Gold edges off two-week lows as Sino-U.S. trade caution lingers

26 Nov 2019

Gold prices edged higher from a two-week low hit earlier on Tuesday, as equities retreated from multi-year highs, with investors awaiting more details on the imminent trade agreement between the United States and China.

PRECIOUS-Gold slides to two-week low on hopes for thaw in trade feud

25 Nov 2019

* Specs raise bullish bets on gold, silver in week to Nov. 19 * Palladium hits more than two-week high * GRAPHIC-2018 asset returns: http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl (Updates prices) By K. Sathya Narayanan Nov 25 Gold fell for a fourth straight session on Monday, hitting a two-week low as investors' appetite for riskier assets increased on renewed optimism that a resolution to the protracted U.S.-China trade conflict will soon be reached. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,455.87 per ounce as of 01:58 p.m. EST (1858 GMT), after touching its lowest level since Nov. 12 at $1,453.40. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $1,456.90 per ounce. "There is some renewed risk-on (sentiment) in the market based on the news from the trade deal front ... we have seen the bonds trade a tad weaker, yen trading softer as well and gold drifting lower," said Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen. Hansen added that the stock market "is trading on the assumption that a trade deal of some sort will be reached." World shares staged a cautious rally, while the safe-haven Japanese yen fell to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar. Beijing and Washington were "very close" to an initial trade agreement, Chinese newspaper Global Times reported, citing experts close to the talks. Adding to the positive mood was the weekend announcement that China would seek to improve protections for intellectual property rights, a sticking point in the talks. Intellectual property rights protection "is a key element the U.S. wants China to reform in order to reach a trade deal. It could be that the U.S.'s hard-line approach on the trade deal with China is putting pressure on China to get a deal completed soon," Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a note. Still, investors remained cautious, with officials, lawmakers and trade experts from both sides saying an ambitious "phase two" trade deal looked less likely. "There is no major selling in the gold market, which might suggest that people are still sceptical about these developments," Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said. "They see them as some sort of temporary relief, not a real longer-term solution." Speculators increased their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver in the week to Nov. 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Silver fell 0.6% to $16.90 per ounce, after touching its lowest price in a week. Palladium rose 1.3% to $1,799.04 per ounce, having earlier hit its highest level since Nov. 7. Platinum was up 0.6% at $896.75 per ounce. (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan and Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Tom Brown)

Gold slides to two-week low on hopes for thaw in trade feud

25 Nov 2019

Gold fell for a fourth straight session on Monday, hitting a two-week low as investors' appetite for riskier assets increased on renewed optimism that a resolution to the long-drawn U.S.-China trade conflict will soon be reached.

PRECIOUS-Gold prices ease as strong U.S. data lifts dollar, yields

22 Nov 2019

* Palladium on track for best week since mid-September * U.S. manufacturing output, services activity pick up in November * Trump says trade deal with China 'potentially very close' (Updates prices) By K. Sathya Narayanan Nov 22 Gold prices edged lower on Friday as the dollar and Treasuries strengthened after data showed U.S. manufacturing output and services activity picked up, limiting demand for the yellow metal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,462.97 per ounce by 1:21 p.m. ET (1921 GMT), and was set for a 0.3% weekly loss. U.S. gold futures settled unchanged at $1,463.60 per ounce. U.S. manufacturing output accelerated in November to its fastest pace in seven months and services activity also picked up more than expected, a survey of purchasing managers showed on Friday. "Stronger data in the U.S. just strengthens the interpretation that the Federal Reserve is going to stay on the pause here, for the next few meetings," said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities. "That means rates (Treasuries) and the dollar continue to move higher, which constrains gold." The U.S. central bank, after cutting benchmark rates for the third time this year, had emphasised that it will keep interest rates on hold until the economy takes a downturn. "Fear from the long drawn out trade war seems to be losing its sting as markets price in the possibility that no deal may be reached in the next few months," Silver Bullion sales manager Vincent Tie said. "I believe a greater catalyst to volatility in gold prices now are the actions of the Federal Reserve to expand their balance sheet once again." The metal, considered as a safe asset during times of political and economic uncertainties, has jumped about 14% so far this year, which could be its best year in nine, mainly propelled by United States' trade war with China. U.S. President Donald Trump said that a trade deal with China is "potentially very close" and that he stands with both the people of Hong Kong, amid massive protests in the region, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The U.S. Congress on Wednesday passed two bills intended to support protesters in Hong Kong and send a warning to China about human rights, to China's displeasure. "The markets are kind of pricing in just a further delay in trade (deal). The situation is so fluid, which is frustrating," said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA. Among other precious metals, silver slipped 0.4% to $17.02 per ounce, but was up for the week, while platinum fell 2.5% to $891.74. Palladium climbed 0.8% to $1,774.05 per ounce and with gains of more than 4% so far this week, the auto-catalyst metal was on track for its biggest weekly increase since mid-September. (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru; Editing by Dan Grebler and Marguerita Choy)

PRECIOUS-Gold dips as hopes for U.S.-China trade deal re-emerge

21 Nov 2019

* Gold has gained over 14% so far this year * China invites top U.S. negotiators for more talks -WSJ (Updates prices) By K. Sathya Narayanan Nov 21 Gold prices eased on Thursday as a report that China has invited top U.S. negotiators for a new round of talks rekindled some hopes regarding the U.S.-China trade deal, but mixed signals on the progress of talks limited bullion's losses. Spot gold dipped 0.5% to $1,464.43 per ounce as of 1:49 p.m. EST (1849 GMT). Prices had notched a two-week high of $1,478.80 in the previous session before turning negative. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to settle at $1,463.60 per ounce. "Stocks are a little weak right now, but gold is still negative and that is kind of concerning. If stocks continue to go higher and there is some optimism about the trade deal, then I am expecting gold to have a washout," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. China will strive to reach an initial trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Beijing has invited U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks. The next round of tariffs on Chinese goods is due on Dec. 15. However, global equities and the U.S. currency markets are still nervous about the fate of the impending "phase-one" trade deal after Washington passed two bills intended to support protesters in Hong Kong and send a warning to China on its human rights policies. There have been increasingly violent protests in Hong Kong against Chinese rule for several months and the passage of the bills could potentially undermine efforts to secure a trade deal. "Ultimately gold is going to continue to go higher but we may get a washout before the market moves high. There is a possibility that we get back to (the) 200-day moving average to find some support, which is around $1,400," Pavilonis added. Bullion, seen as a safe haven during times of economic and political uncertainties, has gained over 14% so far this year, which could be its biggest yearly gain since 2010. "There have been some buyers on dips and the holders of gold still hope prices will go higher. But if this does not materialise in the near-term, they will likely take profit on longs, pushing prices lower," said ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele. Among other precious metals, palladium slipped 0.3% to $1,760.76 an ounce, declining after three straight days of gains. Silver was down 0.3% at $17.08 per ounce; and platinum fell 0.3% to $914.36. (Reporting by K. Sathya Narayanan, Karthika Suresh Namboothiri, and Harshith Aranya in Bengaluru Editing by Dan Grebler and Matthew Lewis)

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