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Karen Brettell

Dollar gains on solid retail sales, before Fed meeting

14 Jun 2019

NEW YORK The dollar index climbed to its highest in almost two weeks on Friday after encouraging retail sales data for May released ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week eased fears that the U.S. economy is slowing sharply.

FOREX-Dollar gains on solid retail sales, before Fed meeting

14 Jun 2019

(New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, June 14 The dollar index climbed to its highest level in a week on Friday after encouraging retail sales data for May eased fears that the U.S. economy is slowing sharply, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales rose 0.5% last month, just slightly below economists’ expectations of a 0.6% gain. Data for April was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.3%, instead of dropping 0.2% as previously reported. The dollar has recovered in the last week from a weak start to June, as investors consider whether rate cut expectations have gotten too far-fetched relative to the data. With international economic growth slowing, investors are nervous that U.S. President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on Japan and Europe, which could result in more dovish central banks globally and give the dollar a relative advantage. The U.S. economy is also seen as better placed to handle trade tensions than other countries. The dollar “has benefited to date from negative globalization news as the domestic side of the U.S. economy has looked sufficiently robust to deal with trade-related headwinds,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report on Friday. “Other countries look less resilient in the face of trade tensions due to higher exposure to global import demand, dependence on manufacturing exports, and underdeveloped domestic demand,” they said. Chinese data on Friday flashed more warning signs in May, with industrial output growth unexpectedly slowing to a more than 17-year low and investment cooling, underlining a need for more stimulus. The Fed is not widely expected to lower interest rates when it meets on June 18-19, though investors will watch for new signals that a cut may come in July. Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a 23% chance of a cut in June, and an 87% likelihood of at least one cut in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The other major catalyst for the dollar in the near term is whether the United States and China will renew trade negotiations at the G20 summit on June 28-29. Trump said on Friday it didn’t matter if Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the summit, adding that China would eventually make a trade deal with the U.S. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:04AM (1304 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1234 $1.1275 -0.36% -2.05% +1.1289 +1.1232 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.4500 108.3700 +0.07% -1.64% +108.4700 +108.1700 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 121.85 122.20 -0.29% -3.46% +122.2700 +121.7900 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9972 0.9936 +0.36% +1.61% +0.9979 +0.9926 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2620 1.2672 -0.41% -1.07% +1.2682 +1.2617 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3348 1.3324 +0.18% -2.12% +1.3354 +1.3323 Australian/Dollar AUD= 0.6885 0.6913 -0.41% -2.33% +0.6918 +0.6883 Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1206 1.1205 +0.01% -0.43% +1.1227 +1.1196 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8902 0.8896 +0.07% -0.91% +0.8917 +0.8891 NZ Dollar/Dollar NZD= 0.6512 0.6567 -0.84% -3.05% +0.6573 +0.6510 Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.6964 8.6777 +0.22% +0.67% +8.7003 +8.6631 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7703 9.7899 -0.20% -1.37% +9.7968 +9.7706 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4643 9.4814 -0.57% +5.58% +9.4992 +9.4240 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.6340 10.6950 -0.57% +3.60% +10.7123 +10.6335 (Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Dollar steady before Fed meeting, G20 summit

13 Jun 2019

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar was little changed against the euro on Thursday as investors were reluctant to take large positions before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the G20 summit in Japan later this month.

FOREX-Dollar steady before Fed meeting, G20 summit

13 Jun 2019

(New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, June 13 The U.S. dollar was little changed against the euro on Thursday as investors were reluctant to take large positions before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the G20 summit in Japan later this month. Tepid inflation and weakening economic data in the midst of a U.S.-China trade war has fed expectations that the Federal Reserve is close to cutting interest rates. That has brought the U.S. dollar down from two-year highs reached in May, yet investors are reluctant to get too bearish on the greenback without further confirmation that rate cuts are near. “I think in order to see the dollar weaken further you need to see some follow through from the Fed on rate easing,” said Mazen Issa, senior fx strategist at TD Securities in New York. The Fed is not widely expected to cut rates when it meets on June 18-19, though investors will watch for new signals that a cut may come in July. Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a 21% chance of a cut in June, and an 85% likelihood of at least one cut in July. The other major catalyst for the dollar in the near term is whether the United States and China will renew trade negotiations at the G20 summit on June 28-29. With international economic growth slowing, investors are also nervous that U.S. President Donald Trump is now considering tariffs on Japan and Europe. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned that escalating trade tension pose risks that the eurozone could slip into a prolonged period of low growth. The Australian dollar dropped on Thursday after a mixed set of local jobs data were taken as a green light for a rate cut as soon as July. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:42AM (1342 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1274 $1.1287 -0.12% -1.70% +1.1303 +1.1274 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.4500 108.4900 -0.04% -1.64% +108.5300 +108.1700 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.29 122.45 -0.13% -3.11% +122.5500 +122.1800 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9934 0.9954 -0.20% +1.22% +0.9960 +0.9919 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2683 1.2686 -0.02% -0.58% +1.2707 +1.2663 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3319 1.3341 -0.16% -2.31% +1.3343 +1.3300 Australian/Dollar AUD= 0.6912 0.6928 -0.23% -1.94% +0.6937 +0.6902 Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1204 1.1237 -0.29% -0.44% +1.1249 +1.1201 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8887 0.8894 -0.08% -1.07% +0.8920 +0.8883 NZ Dollar/Dollar NZD= 0.6560 0.6572 -0.18% -2.34% +0.6587 +0.6557 Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.6611 8.6558 +0.06% +0.26% +8.6695 +8.6441 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7665 9.7725 -0.06% -1.41% +9.7907 +9.7646 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4866 9.4735 +0.03% +5.83% +9.4898 +9.4644 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.6970 10.6940 +0.03% +4.21% +10.7094 +10.6889 (Editing by David Gregorio)

Dollar gains as trade tensions, Fed policy in focus

12 Jun 2019

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar gained on Wednesday as trade tensions and U.S. interest rate policy remained in focus after President Donald Trump expressed optimism over making a trade deal with China.

FOREX-Dollar climbs after brief dip on weak consumer price gains

12 Jun 2019

(New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, June 12 The U.S. dollar was modestly higher on Wednesday as trade tensions and U.S. interest rate policy remained in focus, after briefly weakening earlier on data showing that U.S. consumer prices barely rose in May. The greenback has come under pressure as tepid inflation and weakening economic data adds to bets that the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting interest rates. Still, a sustained decline against the euro has not yet emerged as the U.S. currency still benefits from relatively higher rates than in Europe. “You still have a very large divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and that’s really what’s precluding a sustained euro/dollar rally based on the expectations of what the Fed’s going to do going forward,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. The dollar dropped sharply on Wednesday after the Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up 0.1% last month. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core CPI nudged up 0.1% for the fourth straight month. The decline was not sustained however, with the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies last up 0.11%. Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have sought to explain low price pressures as being transitory. The Fed is not widely expected to cut rates when it meets on June 18-19, though investors will be watching for any new signals that a cut is getting nearer. Interest rate futures traders are now pricing in a 22% chance of a cut in June, and an 85% likelihood of a cut in July. Low inflation is a concern for the Fed at the same time as the U.S.-China trade war threatens to derail global economic growth. Investors are also nervous that trade battles will spread to Japan and Europe, with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday accusing Europe of devaluing the euro zone's single currency. "The Euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the U.S. at a big disadvantage," Trump tweeted. He also renewed his attack on the U.S. central bank, saying that interest rates were too high. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:32AM (1332 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1312 $1.1329 -0.15% -1.38% +1.1343 +1.1311 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.5000 108.5000 +0.00% -1.60% +108.5700 +108.2200 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.74 122.89 -0.12% -2.76% +122.9900 +122.6100 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9949 0.9922 +0.27% +1.38% +0.9953 +0.9904 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2736 1.2722 +0.11% -0.16% +1.2758 +1.2716 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3291 1.3279 +0.09% -2.54% +1.3304 +1.3278 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6944 0.6960 -0.23% -1.49% +0.6963 +0.6943 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1256 1.1240 +0.14% +0.03% +1.1264 +1.1226 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8881 0.8901 -0.22% -1.14% +0.8912 +0.8873 NZ NZD= 0.6577 0.6582 -0.08% -2.08% +0.6589 +0.6567 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.6394 8.6279 +0.13% +0.01% +8.6458 +8.6183 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7729 9.7773 -0.05% -1.34% +9.7948 +9.7723 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4403 9.4496 -0.25% +5.32% +9.4569 +9.4196 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.6785 10.7050 -0.25% +4.04% +10.7173 +10.6760 (Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Dollar dips modestly as trade, data in focus

11 Jun 2019

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar index dropped slightly on Tuesday as investors focussed on the U.S.-China trade war and economic data for signals of growth and whether the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in the coming months.

FOREX-Dollar little changed as trade, data in focus

11 Jun 2019

(New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, June 11 The U.S. dollar index was flat on Tuesday as investors focused on the U.S.-China trade war and economic data for signals of growth and whether the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in the coming months. Risk sentiment improved on Monday, after the United States reached a deal with Mexico on Friday to avoid imposing tariffs on the country. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China and the prospect that U.S. President Trump will look to impose tariffs on Japan and Europe, however, continues to weigh on risk sentiment. Investors are concerned that trade wars are harming global growth, and increasing the likelihood that the U.S. central bank will need to cut rates to stimulate growth. Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices rose for a second straight month in May, though price pressures remained tepid. “It certainly plays into the dovish Fed story,” said Win Thin global, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, is the next inflation indicator. Retail sales on Friday will also be closely watched for indication on whether tariffs are slowing the economy. “We know we are in a low inflation environment right now, but the question is what is the U.S. story in terms of growth,” said Thin. This month's G20 summit will help push U.S-China trade talks forward but no final agreement was expected to be reached there, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday. Trump on Monday said he was ready to impose another round of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports if he cannot make progress in trade talks. Trump on Tuesday accused Europe of devaluing the euro zone's single currency in a series of tweets that also targeted U.S. monetary policy with renewed attacks on the U.S. central bank. "The Euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the U.S. at a big disadvantage," Trump tweeted without offering any evidence. He also slammed U.S. interest rates for being too high. Interest rate futures traders are pricing in an almost 80 percent chance of a rate decrease at the Fed's July meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:38AM (1338 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1317 $1.1312 +0.04% -1.33% +1.1331 +1.1303 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.6400 108.4300 +0.19% -1.47% +108.7900 +108.3600 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.96 122.66 +0.24% -2.58% +123.1400 +122.6300 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9922 0.9896 +0.26% +1.10% +0.9935 +0.9893 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2706 1.2683 +0.18% -0.40% +1.2727 +1.2671 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3259 1.3265 -0.05% -2.77% +1.3277 +1.3250 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6960 0.6961 -0.01% -1.26% +0.6966 +0.6948 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1229 1.1196 +0.29% -0.22% +1.1235 +1.1192 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8905 0.8916 -0.12% -0.88% +0.8932 +0.8893 NZ NZD= 0.6583 0.6607 -0.36% -1.99% +0.6611 +0.6570 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.6277 8.6552 -0.32% -0.13% +8.6852 +8.6199 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7634 9.7938 -0.31% -1.44% +9.8311 +9.7576 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4411 9.4169 +0.29% +5.32% +9.4516 +9.4064 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.6840 10.6530 +0.29% +4.09% +10.6896 +10.6502

Dollar gains as Mexico tariffs averted, boosting risk sentiment

10 Jun 2019

NEW YORK The dollar gained on Monday after the United States and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs, while the euro faltered after sources said European Central Bank policymakers were open to cutting interest rates should economic growth slow.

FOREX-Dollar gains as Mexican tariffs averted, boosting risk sentiment

10 Jun 2019

(New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, June 10 The dollar gained on Monday after the United States and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs, while the euro faltered after sources said European Central Bank policymakers were open to cutting interest rates should economic growth slow. On Friday, Mexico agreed to rapidly expand an asylum program and deploy security forces to stem the flow of illegal Central American migrants. This averted a tariff war with the United States. “The news that tariffs on Mexico will now be averted is the main reason the dollar had a good bounce overnight,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp in New York. Last week, the greenback weakened on concerns that trade disputes wiould hurt the global economy. U.S. jobs data also was weaker than expected, feeding expectations the Federal Reseve would cut U.S. interest rates. The U.S.-China trade war and worries that U.S. President Donald Trump will slap tariffs on Japan and Europe should keep investors averse to loading up on riskier assets. “I think the market psyche has been rattled and this is increasingly going to be a headwind for sentiment,” said Franulovich. “There is still the outstanding issue with China, and on top of that many other countries that are in his cross hairs.” On Monday, Trump said he believed China will make a trade deal with Washington. He also said China devalues its currency, which creates an uneven playing field, and criticized the Fed's failure to quickly lower U.S. interest rates as "destructive." The euro dipped after two sources familiar with the ECB's policy discussions said on Sunday that a rate cut was firmly in play if the bloc's economy stagnates again after expanding by 0.4% in the first quarter. The single currency rocketed last week after the ECB said rates would stay "at their present levels" until mid-2020 instead of hinting at rate cuts as some expected. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:35AM (1335 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1315 $1.1331 -0.14% -1.34% +1.1330 +1.1291 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.5200 108.1800 +0.31% -1.58% +108.7100 +108.3800 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.80 122.60 +0.16% -2.71% +122.9100 +122.6600 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9897 0.9876 +0.21% +0.85% +0.9917 +0.9877 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2678 1.2734 -0.44% -0.62% +1.2746 +1.2655 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3253 1.3265 -0.09% -2.82% +1.3280 +1.3225 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6970 0.6998 -0.40% -1.12% +0.7022 +0.6961 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1199 1.1193 +0.05% -0.49% +1.1209 +1.1183 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8924 0.8899 +0.28% -0.67% +0.8929 +0.8880 NZ NZD= 0.6624 0.6664 -0.60% -1.38% +0.6678 +0.6613 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.6390 8.6243 +0.17% +0.00% +8.6596 +8.6151 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7773 9.7772 +0.00% -1.30% +9.7856 +9.7548 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3982 9.3967 -0.12% +4.85% +9.4382 +9.3970 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.6350 10.6480 -0.12% +3.62% +10.6651 +10.6358 (Additional reporting by Tommy Wilkes in London; Editing by David Gregorio)

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