Edition:
United Kingdom

Karen Brettell

Yields rise on German fiscal stimulus hopes

16 Aug 2019

NEW YORK Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday on a report that Germany may be open to running a deficit to boost growth, while stronger stock markets also reduced demand for safe haven debt.

Yields rise from three-year lows on German fiscal stimulus hopes

16 Aug 2019

NEW YORK Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday on a report that Germany may be open to running a deficit to boost growth, while stronger stock markets also reduced demand for safe haven debt.

TREASURIES-Yields rise from three-year lows, trade concerns remain

16 Aug 2019

* U.S.-China trade war remains worry for investors * Fed Chairman Powell to speak at Jackson Hole next Friday By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Aug 16 Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-year lows on Friday as investors evaluated how far damage from the U.S.-China trade war will spread, after the inversion of a key part of the yield curve this week raised fears of a U.S. recession. Safe-haven government bond yields plunged this week, and the closely watched U.S. yield curve between 2-year and 10-year notes inverted for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, sending stock markets sharply lower. The inversion of that part of the yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator that a U.S. recession is coming in one to wo years. Escalating tensions between the United States and China are weighing on business sentiment and adding to concerns that U.S. economic growth will slow more than previously anticipated. “The market is attempting to gauge the extent, duration and magnitude of the fallout from the trade war,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York. As economic data worsens, central banks globally are expected to adopt increasingly dovish monetary policies to loosen financial conditions. The Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates for the first time in over a decade and said further cuts may not be needed. The bond market, however, sees a rate decrease at the U.S. central bank’s September meeting as a sure thing, with the only question being the size. Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a 72 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 28 percent chance of a 50-basis-point one, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 9/32 in price on Friday to yield 1.556%, after reaching a three-year low of 1.475% on Thursday. Continuing concern about economic growth may send the yields below record lows of 1.321% reached in July 2016. Plunging yields across the globe, including negative rates in much of Europe, have sent investors to longer-dated debt to capture returns. Thirty-year Treasury bond yields fell to a record low of 1.916% on Thursday. They were last 2.008%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak at the Fed’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 23. His comments will be closely evaluated for any indications that he has changed his stance on further rate cuts. )

U.S. yield curve inversion highlights recession fears, Fed dilemma

15 Aug 2019

NEW YORK When the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade, it signalled that further reductions in borrowing costs might not be needed. Bond markets vehemently disagree. | Video

Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means

14 Aug 2019

Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes <US10YT=RR> slid below those on two-year notes <US2YT=RR> on Wednesday, delivering a reliable recession signal and sending shudders through global financial markets.

Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means

14 Aug 2019

The spread between yields on U.S. two-year and 10-year notes, a closely watched metric, is likely to invert for the first time since 2007. That would follow the inversion of another part of the yield curve earlier in the year. Here is what that means.

Dollar, yuan stronger as risk sentiment improves

08 Aug 2019

NEW YORK The dollar index edged higher on Thursday and China's currency strengthened after the Chinese central bank fixed the yuan at a stronger level than expected, boosting risk appetite.

FOREX-Dollar, yuan stronger as risk sentiment improves

08 Aug 2019

* Chinese data, yuan fixing boosts risk sentiment * Euro briefly bid on report Germany to issue new debt (New throughout, updates trading and comments to U.S. market open, previous LONDON) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Aug 8 The dollar index inched higher on Thursday and the Chinese currency strengthened after the Chinese central bank fixed the yuan at a stronger level than expected, boosting risk appetite. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 7.0039. The fixing was still the weakest in more than a decade, however. "Last night fixed over 7 and markets seem to be taking that fairly well, so perhaps some calm is installed in the market at least for the very near term," said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. Data showing a surprise increase in Chinese exports in July from a year earlier added to the improving sentiment. The dollar fell 0.19% against the offshore yuan to 7.0681. The dollar index against a basket of currencies gained 0.07% to 97.614. On Monday, China allowed its currency to weaken past 7 per dollar for the first time since 2008, sparking broad risk aversion on concerns that the U.S.-China trade war was escalating. The move came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement last week that he would impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. Washington labeled Beijing a currency manipulator on Monday. Trade tensions are likely to continue to weigh on the Chinese currency and risk appetite, with no resolution to the U.S.-China dispute in sight. Increasingly dovish central bank policies are also adding to nerves that the global economic outlook may be worse than feared - central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand all cut rates on Wednesday. "The risk of these central banks trying to out-dove one another is, the more they do, the more they instill panic into market participants that this is worse than expected,” Issa said. The euro jumped briefly on Thursday after Reuters reported that Germany is considering ditching its long-cherished balanced budget goal by issuing new debt to finance a costly climate protection package. The single currency has been boosted in recent days by the unwind of emerging market carry trades that were funded in euros. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:40AM (1340 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1202 $1.1197 +0.04% -2.33% +1.1228 +1.1182 Dollar/Yen JPY= 106.1000 106.2600 -0.15% -3.77% +106.2900 +105.9200 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 118.87 118.99 -0.10% -5.82% +119.1500 +118.5600 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9774 0.9752 +0.23% -0.41% +0.9776 +0.9738 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2122 1.2140 -0.15% -4.98% +1.2182 +1.2097 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3288 1.3300 -0.09% -2.56% +1.3314 +1.3272 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6797 0.6755 +0.62% -3.58% +0.6798 +0.6747 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.0950 1.0924 +0.24% -2.70% +1.0955 +1.0917 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.9238 0.9222 +0.17% +2.83% +0.9265 +0.9208 NZ NZD= 0.6467 0.6444 +0.36% -3.72% +0.6469 +0.6435 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.9433 8.9529 -0.11% +3.53% +8.9614 +8.9215 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.0180 10.0271 -0.09% +1.13% +10.0400 +10.0040 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.5956 9.6372 -0.40% +7.05% +9.6386 +9.5856 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.7505 10.7934 -0.40% +4.74% +10.8011 +10.7459 (Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

Global growth concerns boost safe havens: yen, Swiss franc

07 Aug 2019

NEW YORK The Japanese yen rose to an eight-month high against the dollar on Wednesday and the Swiss franc gained as worries over flagging international growth sent investors to safe-haven currencies.

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