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Lisa Jucca

Breakingviews - BlackRock’s Italian U-turn leaves state on hook

09 May 2019

LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - BlackRock’s U-turn on a daring Italian bank rescue puts Rome back on the hook. The world’s biggest asset manager on Thursday confirmed it had dropped plans to join a 720 million euro rescue for ailing bank Carige. The abrupt decision after months of discussions is a belated admission the project was too risky. That is bad news for Italy’s taxpayers.

Breakingviews - The Exchange: Marco Polo 2.0

23 Apr 2019

ROME (Reuters Breakingviews) - Italy irked the United States by backing Beijing’s grand infrastructure plan. The country needs to improve ties with the People’s Republic to sell more wine and other exports, says Rome’s top China expert. Overcoming trade barriers will, however, require an EU team effort.

Breakingviews - UniCredit interest gives German bank merger a push

04 Apr 2019

LONDON/MILAN (Reuters Breakingviews) - Deutsche Bank boss Christian Sewing has just received an unexpected leg-up from his rival Jean Pierre Mustier, who runs Italy’s UniCredit. Both men are competing for the affections of Commerzbank. The arrival of another suitor puts extra pressure on the German government to back a domestic marriage.

Breakingviews - Fiat Chrysler might gain from M&A waiting game

27 Mar 2019

MILAN/LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles might gain from playing an M&A waiting game. Already the subject of interest from Peugeot of France, the $24 billion carmaker could face a bid from a merged Renault-Nissan, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. Such a deal would be tricky and take time. But patience could give FCA better options to solve its tech and Asian headaches.

Breakingviews - The Exchange: Austerity in the age of populism

08 Mar 2019

MILAN (Reuters Breakingviews) - Fiscal restraint is going out of fashion. In his new book “Austerity”, Harvard professor Alberto Alesina sets out to explain when it’s needed. He tells Breakingviews of the hidden long-term risks of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies and why Italy’s debt risks are not over.

Breakingviews - LVMH-Pernod bid talk makes for watery cocktail

04 Mar 2019

MILAN/LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Ever since uppity investor Elliott Advisors turned up at Pernod Ricard late last year, Paris has been awash with talk that LVMH is lurking somewhere behind the gilded curtains, waiting to pounce on the $46 billion spirits group. The rumours reached a fever pitch in February when an equity research firm published a report detailing the potential financial benefits that might accrue from such a deal.

Breakingviews - French squeeze-out plans may tempt Arnault on Dior

07 Jan 2019

MILAN (Reuters Breakingviews) - France’s new squeeze-out plans may tempt luxury magnate Bernard Arnault to make a final swoop on taking his Christian Dior holding private. President Emmanuel Macron’s wide-ranging bill to make la Republique more attractive for business, known as “loi Pacte”, envisages cutting to 90 percent the bar for companies wanting to buy out listed minorities. The rule changes, combined with falling luxury stocks prices, may revive the magnate’s interest in taking Dior behind closed doors.

Breakingviews - Italy’s woes could spell LVMH moment for Moncler

02 Jan 2019

MILAN/LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Remo Ruffini could be Italy’s answer to Bernard Arnault in 2019. Since rescuing Moncler in 2003, the entrepreneur has rejuvenated the brand into a goose-down success story. There’s a long way to go before he can use the growing strength of 7.5 billion euro Moncler to create anything like Arnault’s LVMH, worth 130 billion euros. But if he fancies building the first Italian luxury aggregator, now is a good time. Italian luxury is fragmented and valuations are historically cheap — the sector trades on 25 times expected earnings, compared to a five-year average of 28 times, Refinitiv data shows. Sales at upscale shoemaker Tod’s have been falling since 2014. Salvatore Ferragamo also struggles with revenue, and is in flux after matriarch Wanda Ferragamo’s death. Unlisted players like handbag-maker Furla may also come up for sale. U.S. and Chinese buyers have noticed. Michael Kors paid a hefty $2.1 billion for struggling Versace in September. China’s top textile player Shandong Ruyi and conglomerate Fosun snagged Swiss brand Bally and French couture house Lanvin respectively. Still, the rise of an EU-sceptic government in Rome embracing shaky budget policies could put a brake on global buyer enthusiasm. That gives Ruffini an opportunity to consider going beyond Moncler. The Italian is doing something right: sales jumped by 15 percent in 2017 and should do so again in 2018. His skills could be deployed to battle the generational shifts and changing consumer habits undermining some storied Italian brands. Investors who bought Moncler shares when it debuted in 2013 have seen total returns double, beating all listed peers bar Hermes. At 35 percent, Moncler’s EBITDA margins are second only to the famed French handbag maker among luxury players in Europe. And Ruffini is no stranger to M&A: in October his family vehicle Archive bought a 49 percent stake in small Italian fashion brand Attico. LVMH and peers Kering and Richemont are so shaped because their size brings economies of scale and diversification benefits. Although Moncler’s flagship jackets are in vogue, acquiring leather goods or watches could hedge against fickle tastes. If Ruffini can overcome Italian luxury’s traditional rivalries and get second-generation potential sellers onside, the path to Arnault-style status could be his.

Breakingviews - EU rebels will lay siege to Brussels

02 Jan 2019

MILAN (Reuters Breakingviews) - European Union rebels will lay siege to Brussels in 2019. Voters across the bloc will go to the polls in May to choose a new European Parliament. Simmering anti-elite sentiment and disenchantment with EU rules are expected to give nationalist parties a bigger voice. Sceptics could even infiltrate the European Commission.

Breakingviews - Italian banks to bear populism’s burden next year

21 Dec 2018

MILAN (Reuters Breakingviews) - May 27, 2019. It’s 6:25 a.m. on the U.S. East Coast. Mike P., a portfolio manager at Boston’s OMG Capital, messages a dealer contact in Milan via WhatsApp after checking the markets on his Eikon app.

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