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Nakul Iyer

Gold rebounds from five-month lows as virus fears outweigh vaccine cheer

5:27am GMT

Gold prices recovered from five-month lows on Tuesday as worries over spiking COVID-19 cases offset optimism around vaccine developments and nudged investors towards the precious metal.

PRECIOUS-Gold rebounds off 5-month low as virus spurt threatens economic recovery

7:25am GMT

(Adds comments, updates prices) * California considers lockdown at COVID-19 'tipping point' * Asian equities gain on vaccine prospects * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa By Nakul Iyer Dec 1 Gold prices gained on Tuesday after a steep sell-off to near five-month lows in the previous session renewed interest in the safe-haven metal with rising COVID-19 cases clouding the economic outlook. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,785.10 per ounce by 0625 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $1,788.50. The metal clocked its worst monthly fall in four years on Monday, slipping to $1,764.29 per ounce, the lowest level since July 2. "Gold prices have closed above important support levels of around $1,760, and since those levels have held, we could see a further bounce in the near term," Harshal Barot, a senior research consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus, said, adding that virus resurgence has also supported bullion. "Given that there are expectations for further liquidity in global markets in the form of fiscal or monetary policy, gold could potentially revive its positive correlation with equities." Asian equities gained on growing prospects for a COVID-19 vaccine with some Americans likely to receive vaccinations before Christmas. But COVID-19 cases topped 1.1 million in the United States last week, with California weighing fresh curbs such as stay-at-home orders, dimming the economic outlook. Investor focus now turns to Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee later in the day, which will offer clues on the direction of monetary policy. Non-yielding gold is seen as a hedge against inflation likely to result from large stimulus measures. "Gold has been a crowded trade for quite a while, so we're seeing a realignment of asset allocation away from gold and towards more risky assets as the (market) sentiment is improved," said Michael Langford, executive director at corporate advisory and consultancy firm AirGuide. "That being said, those flows can quickly reverse again as the economic situation becomes more apparent." Silver gained 1.1% to $22.85 an ounce, while platinum rose 1.7% to $981.37 and palladium was up 0.6% at $2,387.70. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M. and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

PRECIOUS-Vaccine optimism puts gold on course for worst month in 4 years

30 Nov 2020

(Updates prices) * Gold drops to near 5-month low * Silver slips as much 3.5% * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: open * https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser By Nakul Iyer Nov 30 Gold slid more than 1% on Monday and was set for its worst month since November 2016, as hopes of a coronavirus vaccine-led economic rebound lured investors into buying risk assets. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,775.11 per ounce by 0650 GMT, shedding 5.4% this month. The metal also hit its lowest since July 2 at $1,764.29 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.7% to $1,775.70. "Vaccine-inspired optimism about an economic bounce is really eroding the attraction of safe-haven investments like gold," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets. Vaccine optimism drove the dollar to a more than two-year low and put world stocks on course for a record month. "Gold looks bearishly biased and I don't see any signal of a trend reversing anytime soon," said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX. Though gold has reached over-sold territory, the overall trend is so bearish that a technical rebound may not last for long and be sustainable, she added. Data showing China's factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than three years in November also aided risk sentiment. Investors await congressional testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week. "The risks are that the Fed will slow down or even halt its bond purchasing programme and that's another reason to be cautious about the outlook for gold," CMC's McCarthy said. But Citi said it expected bullion's sell-off to taper in December with support in the mid-$1,700s. "A renewed push above $2,000/oz in the next three-six months seems likely," the bank said in a note, citing its bearish dollar outlook and low-interest rates as tailwinds. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Silver fell 2.2% to $22.19 an ounce, after dropping as much as 3.5% earlier in the session. Platinum fell 0.7% to $957.04, while palladium slipped 0.5% at $2,413.08. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)

PRECIOUS-Gold on track for weekly fall as investors overlook vaccine doubts

27 Nov 2020

(Updates prices) * Asian shares stall near record highs * Gold down 3.3% in the week * Silver set for third straight weekly fall, down 3.8% * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa By Nakul Iyer Nov 27 Gold eased on Friday en route to a third straight weekly drop as investors weighed doubts over a leading COVID-19 vaccine candidate against optimism that vaccines will arrive sooner than expected. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,808.90 per ounce by 0751 GMT, down 3.3% on the week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,806.80. Asian shares stalled near record highs as AstraZeneca faced tricky questions about the success rate of its vaccine that could hinder speedy U.S. and EU regulatory approvals. "For the markets, I don't think that changes the perception that there's going to be a vaccine sooner than previously expected," said IG Markets analyst Kyle Rodda. Investors are starting to buy into the narrative that the economic recovery is going to gather steam in 2021 and that's driving them to liquidate gold holdings, Rodda added. Offering some respite to gold, the dollar weakened on improving risk appetite from COVID-19 vaccine optimism and hopes for a smoother transition to a Biden administration. Gold is trapped in a range of $1,800-$1,820 an ounce, with risks tilted to the downside by a steepening yield curve and the weight of accumulated positioning in gold exchange-traded funds, futures and physical holdings, said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA. But analysts said gold's longer-term trajectory remained positive, with bullion still up about 19% this year given its lure as a hedge against likely inflation and currency debasement spurred by unprecedented stimulus measures globally. Gold could reach new highs in 2021 as the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely cap rate rises in the longer end of the yield curve and the dollar will weaken materially, OANDA's Halley added. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Silver fell 0.9% to $23.23 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.8% to $954.53 and palladium gained 0.3% to $2,390.06. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M. & Subhranshu Sahu)

全球金市:金价料周线下跌,投资人忽略阿斯利康疫苗疑虑

27 Nov 2020

路透11月27日 - 金价周五下跌,本周料连续第三周周线下跌。投资人对新冠疫苗疑虑与疫苗将早于预期问世的乐观看法进行权衡。

PRECIOUS-Gold gains as U.S. jobs data, virus fears fuel stimulus hopes

26 Nov 2020

(Updates prices, adds European futures) * ANZ maintains 12-month gold price target of $2,100/oz * European stock futures rise on vaccine, stimulus optimism * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: open * https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser By Nakul Iyer Nov 26 Gold prices rose on Thursday, aided by a weaker dollar, as investors bet that grim U.S. jobs data and surging COVID-19 cases worldwide would spur authorities to announce further stimulus measures. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,815.30 per ounce by 0748 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.4% at $1,812.70. "We've seen risk sentiment improve because of the optimism over vaccines and those were the headwinds for gold," said Harshal Barot, a senior research consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus. "But since the dollar continues to weaken, gold prices are finding a little bit of support." The dollar index edged down 0.1%, strengthening gold's appeal to other currency holders. Barot said gold would find support at $1,795 per ounce and likely trade sideways in the near-term, until a "convincing" break above $1,850. European stock futures rose as the market's euphoric mood over COVID-19 vaccines and on the prospects for stimulus under incoming President Joe Biden outweighed concerns around an uptick in weekly U.S. jobless claims. "The vaccine narrative has watered down gold's appeal immensely and it will continue too until we finally move into an inflationary world," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at financial services firm Axi. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers discussed how the central bank's asset purchases could be adjusted to provide more support to markets in the minutes to its Nov. 4 to 5 meeting. Continued accommodative central bank policy, given the widespread unavailability of a vaccine until the second half of 2021 and dollar weakness means gold is well supported, ANZ said in a note, adding it maintains its 12-month price target of $2,100 per ounce. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation likely to result from large stimulus. Silver rose 0.6% to $23.44 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.3% to $966.74 and palladium was rose 1.9% at $2,372.15. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M. and Vinay Dwivedi)

PRECIOUS-Gold falls as Biden transition, vaccine hopes erode appeal

25 Nov 2020

(Updates prices) * Asian equities extend gains * More gold selling likely below $1,800/oz - analyst * Fed minutes due at 1900 GMT * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser By Nakul Iyer Nov 25 Gold fell on Wednesday as the formal start of Joe Biden's transition to the White House and optimism over coronavirus vaccines dented bullion's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold eased 0.1% to $1,805.00 per ounce by 0648 GMT. On Tuesday, it hit its lowest since July 17 at $1,800.01. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1% to $1,802.80. "We're moving into a new phase in gold as vaccine developments are changing the regime of pandemic-caused disruptions and headwinds to growth that gold markets were pricing in," said Lachlan Shaw, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. "If U.S. real long yields range trade around current levels, it's difficult to see gold breaking out and then sustaining a strong rally towards $1,900 and $2,000." Global equities scaled a record peak, bolstered by U.S. President Donald Trump's go-ahead for Biden to start receiving daily intelligence briefings and an accelerating COVID-19 vaccine race. A break below $1,800 could see more selling of gold and this move towards assets considered higher risk could continue, said ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir, adding bullion should find some support near $1,750-$1,770. But, Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish near-term forecast for gold, terming the current correction a "churn" before prices go up again as "more evidence of inflation emerges." Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, which has gained more than 18% this year given its status as a hedge against likely inflation spurred by the massive stimulus unleashed globally. Investors now await minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting due at 1900 GMT. Silver eased 0.3% to $23.19 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.4% to $964.60, while palladium was down 0.4% at $2,339.43. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)

PRECIOUS-Gold falls on hopes for vaccine, smooth Biden transition

24 Nov 2020

(Updates prices) * Gold's break below $1,840/oz points to further downside -analyst * European shares set to gain on vaccine optimism * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: open * https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser By Nakul Iyer Nov 24 Gold hit a four-month low on Tuesday as investors deserted the safe-haven metal following a U.S. federal agency's transition approval for Joe Biden and growing prospects for the swift release of an inexpensive COVID-19 vaccine. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,831.90 per ounce by 717 GMT, having earlier slid to its lowest since July 21 at $1,820.45. It slumped as much as 2.2% on Monday. U.S. gold futures were down 0.6% to $1,826.30. "Investors are clearly rallying around the narrative of a vaccine-fuelled economic reopening, to the point they're willing to look past the economic realities and potential downside risks that may lie ahead," said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. European stock futures rose, extending optimism in Asian equities spurred by news AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine could be up to 90% effective. In another boost to risk sentiment, U.S. president-elect Biden received the transition go-ahead on Monday. On Twitter, President Donald Trump said he was recommending that his team "do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols". "The fact that we have a smoother transition between President-elect Biden and Trump is just another reason to think that the recovery as it is currently playing out has one less risk to it," said IG Markets analyst Kyle Rodda. The breakdown of support around $1,840 suggests further downside into the $1,700s before buyers return, he added. But analysts noted the likely appointment of former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary could boost bets for further fiscal and monetary stimulus and benefit bullion. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, likely to result from the unprecedented stimulus unleashed globally this year to ease the pandemic's economic blow. Silver fell 0.4% to $23.48 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.9% to $934.73, while palladium dropped 0.7% to $2,338.36. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)

PRECIOUS-Gold gains as dollar dips, investors bet on stimulus

23 Nov 2020

(Adds comments, updates prices) * Vaccine optimism steers Asian equities to record highs * Gold may retest support at $1,855 per ounce -technicals * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: open * https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser By Nakul Iyer Nov 23 Gold rose on Monday, supported by a softer dollar and bets for further U.S. monetary stimulus to revive the pandemic-hit economy outweighing pressure from optimism over a possible COVID-19 vaccine rollout next month. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,874.30 per ounce by 0729 GMT and U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,870.90. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday reassured markets that the Fed and Treasury had many tools left to support the economy, after deciding to de-fund several Federal Reserve lending programs by the end of the year. "Ironically, the failure to deliver a fiscal package is supportive for gold," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets, noting there might be more reliance on Fed support likely in the form of liquidity and lower interest rates as a result. Non-yielding gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation that is likely to result from stimulus measures. Also lending support was a softer U.S. dollar, that lowered the cost of purchasing it to other currency holders. Gold's advance also came despite news that U.S. healthcare workers could start getting COVID-19 inoculation shots within a day or two of regulatory consent next month, helping to push Asian equities to record highs. "The vaccine is not going to change the fundamentals of gold in near term ... It is going to take a lot of time for vaccine to penetrate into the global market," said Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities in Mumbai, India. On the technical front, gold may retest support at $1,855 per ounce, a break below which could cause a fall to $1,841, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Silver rose 0.2% to $24.19 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.2% to $943.66, while palladium was 0.5% higher at $2,338.02. (Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M and Uttaresh.V)

Asia Gold-Festive rush lights up Indian market again

13 Nov 2020

BENGALURU/MUMBAI, Nov 13 Consumers flocked to jewellery shops again in India this week to snap up Diwali and Dhanteras festival deals, with a retreat in prices also adding to the sparkle in the world's second biggest bullion consumer.

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