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Naveen Thukral

GRAINS-Corn drops for second week, improved crop outlook weighs

23 Aug 2019

* Corn down more than 11% in two weeks of losses * Market eyes estimates from Pro Farmer crop tour (Adds details, quote) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 23 Chicago corn futures lost ground on Friday, with the market set for a second week of decline, as expectations of higher crop yields weighed on the market. Wheat slid, while soybeans edged higher. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade is down 2.7% for the week, extending two-week losses to more than 11%. Corn hit a low of $3.66-1/4 a bushel on Wednesday, the weakest since May 14. Soybeans have given up 1% this week, while wheat lost 1.3% on the week, with both markets poised for a second straight weekly decline. "The acreage is higher than what the market was expecting and overall U.S. crop size looks good," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company. Corn yield potential showed signs of improvement across west-central Iowa, scouts on an annual crop tour said on Thursday, but the area was still expected to produce a below-average sized crop after extreme weather delayed planting this past spring. Soybeans were also looking better on the fourth and final day of the Pro Farmer tour, scouts said, a rare bright spot in a U.S. Farm Belt struggling with the U.S.-China trade dispute in addition to poor crop weather. The crop tour is expected to release U.S. soybean and corn production estimates later on Friday. Good weather has helped Argentine farmers speed this season's commercial-use corn harvest, with 94.5% of the crop in the bag so far, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report on Thursday. Production is estimated at 48 million tonnes, it said. Losses in the U.S. wheat market were curbed by strong demand. U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wheat export sales in the week ended Aug. 15 at nearly 600,000 tonnes, topping trade expectations. Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn and wheat futures contracts on Thursday and net sellers of soybeans, soyoil and soymeal futures, traders said. Grains prices at 0252 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 471.25 -0.50 -0.11% +1.02% 494.81 39 CBOT corn 370.50 -0.50 -0.13% +0.47% 410.60 30 CBOT soy 870.75 2.00 +0.23% +0.29% 888.74 47 CBOT rice 11.21 $0.03 +0.27% -0.75% $11.95 25 WTI crude 55.44 $0.09 +0.16% -0.43% $55.71 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.107 $0.000 -0.04% -0.15% USD/AUD 0.6760 0.000 -0.03% -0.29% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

GRAINS-Corn up for 2nd session on demand hopes, market eyes crop tour forecast

22 Aug 2019

* Corn recovers from last session's 3-month low, soybeans ease * Corn, soybean markets eyes forecast from Pro Farmer crop tour (Adds details, quote) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 22 Chicago corn futures rose for a second session on Thursday as prices were underpinned by strong demand, while the market focus is on a widely watched crop tour which is expected to forecast U.S. production at the end of this week. Wheat gained ground, although gains were checked by ample world supplies, while soybeans eased. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade (CBOT) added 0.3% to $3.71-1/4 a bushel by 0229 GMT, after hitting a three-month low of $3.66-1/4 a bushel in the previous session. Soybeans eased 0.1% at $8.72-1/2 a bushel, having firmed 0.5% on Wednesday and wheat was up 0.1% at $4.68-1/2 a bushel, having closed up 0.3% on Wednesday. Corn prices rose on Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said private exporters sold 328,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2019/20 marketing year that begins on Sept. 1. Annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour estimated corn yields in Iowa's crop District 1 in the northwest corner of the state at 184.88 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 186.87 last year and up from the tour's three-year average of 184.12. It estimated Illinois corn yields at 171.17 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 192.63 bpa in 2018 and the tour's three-year average of 188.95 bpa. The crop tour wraps up in Minnesota on Thursday, and editors of the Pro Farmer newsletter are expected to release U.S. soybean and corn production estimates the following day. Corn prices are likely to be influenced by the U.S. Midwest weather as this year's plantings were delayed. "The market still looks shaky in our view," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Weather forecasters continue to expect much of the U.S. Midwest to experience crop-friendly weather. That outlook is more likely than not to pressure prices beyond those lows set last May." Sill, some outlooks called for cooler-than-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest that could slow the development of corn and soybean crops. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. output of corn-based ethanol fell to 1.023 million barrels per day in the week to Aug. 16, the smallest since April, while stocks fell to 23.37 million barrels. Commodity funds were net buyers of Chicago Board of Trade corn, soybean, soyoil, soymeal and wheat futures contracts on Wednesday, traders said. Grains prices at 0229 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 468.50 0.50 +0.11% -0.85% 496.73 32 CBOT corn 371.25 1.00 +0.27% -0.87% 413.22 31 CBOT soy 872.50 -0.50 -0.06% +0.69% 890.28 48 CBOT rice 11.22 -$0.01 -0.04% +1.68% $11.68 20 WTI crude 55.80 $0.12 +0.22% -0.73% $56.03 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.109 $0.001 +0.12% +0.00% USD/AUD 0.6773 0.001 +0.16% -0.10% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; editing by Richard Pullin)

GRAINS-Corn recovers from 3-mth low as crop tour forecasts weaker yields

21 Aug 2019

* Corn firms after 2 days of losses, soybeans up for 2nd session * Pro Farmer crop tour sees lower yields in Nebraska, Indiana (Adds comment, detail) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 21 Chicago corn futures edged up on Wednesday to recover from their lowest in more than three months, buoyed after a U.S. crop tour forecast lower yields. Soybean prices gained for a second session, while wheat inched up after two days of losses. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade had risen 0.3% to $3.69-3/4 a bushel by 0229 GMT, after dropping on Tuesday to its lowest since May 15 at $3.68 a bushel. Soybeans added 0.3% to $8.70-1/2 a bushel and wheat gained 0.2% to $4.67-1/4 a bushel. "The market is looking at the crop tour and there is some support," said Darin Friedrichs, Shanghai-based Senior Asia commodity analyst at INTL FCStone. "Last night prices were under pressure, the weather forecast looks fine as of now but there will be concerns over yields if it gets too cold in September as the crop was planted late." A closely watched crop tour in the U.S. Midwest is forecasting lower corn yields than last year. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour estimated Nebraska corn yields at 172.55 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 179.17 bpa in 2018 but up from the tour's three-year average of 167.73 bpa for the country's No. 3 corn state. Indiana corn yields were projected lower than a year ago at 161.46 bushels per acre, the tour said. The wheat market is facing headwinds from abundant global supplies. Ukraine's 2019 wheat harvest is expected to rise to 27.72 million tonnes from 24.83 million tonnes last year, according to data from grain trader union UZA. Wheat exports could reach 21 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, which started on July 1, compared with 15.53 million tonnes in 2018/19, the forecast data showed on Tuesday. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month trimmed its projection of 2019/20 world wheat ending stocks to 285.4 million tonnes, down from 286.46 million in July, but still at a record size. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat and soyoil futures contracts on Tuesday and net buyers of soybeans and soymeal futures, traders said. Grains prices at 0229 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 467.25 0.75 +0.16% -2.20% 498.20 29 CBOT corn 369.75 1.00 +0.27% -2.89% 415.53 27 CBOT soy 870.50 2.25 +0.26% -1.05% 891.69 46 CBOT rice 11.29 $0.01 +0.09% +0.80% $11.72 23 WTI crude 56.28 $0.15 +0.27% +0.12% $56.05 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.110 $0.002 +0.18% +0.06% USD/AUD 0.6781 0.002 +0.28% +0.01% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Richard Pullin and Joseph Radford)

GRAINS-Corn rebounds as crop tour estimates lower U.S. yields

20 Aug 2019

* Corn futures firm after closing lower, soybeans tick higher * Crop tour estimates lower corn yields in South Dakota, Ohio (Adds details, quote) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 20 Chicago corn futures rose on Tuesday, recouping some of previous session's heavy losses, when a U.S. crop tour forecast below-average yields after a wet spring delayed plantings. Wheat edged higher, although gains were capped by ample global supplies from the recently harvest Northern Hemisphere crop. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 0.7% at $3.77-1/4 a bushel, as of 0248 GMT, wheat gained 0.2% to $4.73-1/2 a bushel and soybeans added 0.5% to $8.71 a bushel. "Pro-farmer crop tour is finding lower yields and there is a good chance that the U.S. corn crop is lower than the current USDA estimate," said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities. "I think it will support prices in the longer run and it may take 6-8 weeks for it to flow through." For the 2019/20 crop year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) last week estimated the corn crop at 13.901 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre. Scouts travelling on a crop tour in the U.S. Midwest on Monday found corn yield potential was below average after a wet spring delayed plantings. Corn yields in Ohio were projected sharply lower than a year ago at 154.35 bushels per acre, the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said on Monday. In South Dakota, the tour estimated corn yields at 154.08 bushels per acre, down from 178.01 bpa last year and the tour's three-year average of 158.59 bpa. The USDA in a weekly crop progress report rated 56% of the U.S. corn crop and 53% of U.S. soybeans in good-to-excellent condition, down from 57% and 54%, respectively, a week earlier. Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had expected no change for ratings of either crop. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, soyoil, wheat and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said. Grains prices at 0248 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 473.50 1.00 +0.21% -0.89% 498.41 33 CBOT corn 377.25 2.75 +0.73% -0.92% 415.78 32 CBOT soy 871.00 4.50 +0.52% -0.99% 891.71 46 CBOT rice 11.03 $0.00 +0.00% -1.52% $11.71 24 WTI crude 56.16 -$0.05 -0.09% +2.35% $56.18 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.108 $0.001 +0.07% -0.05% USD/AUD 0.6778 0.002 +0.24% -0.03% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

GRAINS-Prices ease on favourable Midwest weather

19 Aug 2019

* Corn, soybeans and wheat retreat after Friday's bounce * Rain and mild temperatures seen helping Midwest corn and soybeans * Trade war and high global supplies pressure prices (Updates with European trading, changes byline/dateline) By Gus Trompiz and Naveen Thukral PARIS/SINGAPORE, Aug 19 Chicago corn, wheat and soybean futures eased on Monday, giving up some of the previous session's gains as crop-friendly weather in the U.S. Midwest put the focus back on the prospect of hefty supplies. Corn had led a slide in Chicago grain futures for most of last week after a higher than expected U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate of this year's U.S. corn crop, with a stronger dollar and the continuing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing adding to price pressure. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 1.6% at $3.74-3/4 a bushel at 1136 GMT, having rebounded 2.6% on Friday. CBOT soybeans were down 0.7% at $8.73-1/2 a bushel, having firmed 1% on Friday, while CBOT wheat shed 0.8% to $4.73 a bushel after closing 1.8% up in the previous session. "Seems it was a weekend of pretty favourable weather in the U.S. Midwest," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank. "Fingers crossed, the season is looking better." A benign mix of showers and mild temperatures over the weekend was forecast to continue this week, which could help dry parts of the eastern Midwest and generally boost crop growth after rain-delayed spring planting. The market will receive further clues on harvest prospects from weekly USDA crop ratings later on Monday as well as results from a major grain industry tour of Midwest fields this week. Some market participants view the USDA's corn estimates as too high and caution that late-developing corn and soybeans will also be vulnerable to early autumn frosts. However, analysts say that any downward revisions to the U.S. harvest could have limited price impact given large global supplies and the U.S.-China trade tussle, which has curbed U.S. soybean exports. "Amid the ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China, high stocks and the expectation of a high South American crop, many market participants see no reason to believe in any lasting price recovery," Commerzbank said in a note. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said he was not yet ready to reach a trade deal with Beijing, citing a buoyant U.S. economy. Large speculators cut their net long position in CBOT corn futures in the week ended Aug. 13, regulatory data showed on Friday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and trimmed their net short position in soybeans. Prices at 1136 GMT Last Change Pct End Ytd Pct Move 2018 Move CBOT wheat 473.50 -4.00 -0.84 503.25 -5.91 CBOT corn 374.75 -6.00 -1.58 375.00 -0.07 CBOT soy 873.50 -6.25 -0.71 895.00 -2.40 Paris wheat Dec 172.00 -1.50 -0.86 191.25 -10.07 Paris maize Nov 166.75 -1.25 -0.74 175.25 -4.85 Paris rape Nov 379.75 -0.25 -0.07 364.00 4.33 WTI crude oil 55.01 0.14 0.26 45.41 21.14 Euro/dlr 1.11 0.00 0.08 1.1469 -3.23 Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per tonne (Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and David Goodman)

GRAINS-Corn prices drop 1.4% on favourable U.S. weather; wheat eases

19 Aug 2019

* Chicago corn futures lose ground after Friday's higher close

GRAINS-Corn faces biggest weekly loss in 3 years on U.S. crop outlook

16 Aug 2019

* Corn down nearly 11% this week, most since June 2016 * USDA's forecast of bigger U.S. crop weighs on corn prices (Adds details, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 16 Chicago corn futures ticked higher on Friday, but the market was set for its biggest weekly drop in three years, driven down by expectations of a bigger U.S. crop. Soybeans gained ground after dropping for the last two sessions, however the market was poised for a weekly loss, falling for four out of five weeks. The Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract is down almost 11% this week, the biggest decline since June 2016. Soybeans have given up nearly 2% while wheat is down around 5%. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprised the market this week with a higher estimate for corn production despite historic planting delays. Forecasts for good weather for crop development across much of the U.S. Midwest during the next few weeks cast a bearish tone across the grains markets. "Weather forecasts look favourable for the crop, but still great conjecture around the crop size and not many believe in the USDA numbers," said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities. "So, I think markets have done too much work to the downside." The U.S. soybean crush in July topped most trade estimates and surged from a 21-month low in June to the sixth-highest for any month on record, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Thursday. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 168.093 million bushels of soybeans in July, the highest-ever for the month and the largest monthly crush since March. The USDA on Thursday morning reported export sales of old-crop U.S. corn in the week ended Aug. 8 below trade expectations at 56,200 tonnes and new-crop sales within expectations at 307,600 tonnes. The government said weekly net export sales of soybeans added up to cancellations of 109,800 tonnes for the current marketing year. New-crop soybean export sales totalled a better-than-expected 817,400 tonnes. Export sales of U.S. wheat were 462,200 tonnes, near the high end of a range of trade expectations. Strategie Grains has made a sharp increase to its forecasts for European Union production and exports of soft wheat this season, citing strong harvest expectations in France and Britain together with increasingly competitive EU export prices. The French consultancy now sees 2019-20 soft wheat production in the EU at 142.9 million tonnes, up from 140.6 million tonnes projected in July and 12% above last year's drought-hit crop, it said in a monthly grain report. Grains prices at 0323 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 470.50 1.50 +0.32% -0.32% 495.66 35 CBOT corn 372.75 1.75 +0.47% -1.00% 422.19 21 CBOT soy 875.50 4.75 +0.55% -1.52% 894.51 48 CBOT rice 11.31 -$0.01 -0.09% -1.27% $11.77 32 WTI crude 55.06 $0.59 +1.08% -0.31% $56.29 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.110 -$0.004 -0.35% -0.63% USD/AUD 0.6792 0.005 +0.67% -0.12% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Richard Pullin and Shounak Dasgupta)

GRAINS-Corn rises after deep losses, U.S. rain forecasts cap gains

15 Aug 2019

* Corn firms after 3 days of losses, U.S. weather in focus * Chicago soybeans tick up after closing lower, wheat firms (Adds details, quote) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 15 Chicago corn rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday as bargain buying lifted prices, but gains were limited on expectations of favourable rains across the U.S. Midwest. Soybeans edged higher after closing lower, while wheat firmed although ample supplies kept a lid on the market. Forecasts for some rain in key growing areas of the U.S. Midwest in the coming weeks is adding pressure on the corn market and bolstered the production view issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday. The Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract rose 0.6% to $3.72-1/2 a bushel by 0334 GMT, soybeans added 0.4% to $8.81-1/2 a bushel and wheat gained 0.5% to $4.76 a bushel. Corn prices dropped to their lowest since mid-May on Wednesday, having lost more than 11% in the last three sessions. The USDA surprise boost to its corn production forecast continues to hang over the market. But analysts warned that U.S. corn crop is still vulnerable. "U.S. corn crops are still behind their usual development cycle, so the chance of weather-crop mismatch is greater," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Too hot for some phases and, later, too cool for other phases can still have a material impact on yields." Analysts are expecting a USDA report later on Thursday to show weekly export sales of soybeans between 150,000 tonnes and 700,000 tonnes. A week ago, soybean export sales totalled 419,914 tonnes. Wheat harvesting is coming to an end in the European Union's top producing countries but repeated rains in recent weeks are causing concerns about quality loss in some areas, experts said on Wednesday. Harvesting is almost finished in France, Germany and Poland but rains are interrupting work in Britain. German wheat exporters are seeking access to new markets including China, Mexico and Indonesia, an industry association said, following signals that Saudi Arabia is about to open up to imports from Russia. Saudi Arabia has been Germany's biggest market for wheat exports in recent years, but German firms face much tougher competition after Saudi state grain buyer SAGO said last Thursday that it will relax quality specifications for wheat imports from its next tender. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts on Wednesday. They were net buyers of wheat, traders said. Grains prices at 0334 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 476.00 2.25 +0.47% +0.85% 495.84 39 CBOT corn 372.50 2.25 +0.61% -1.06% 422.18 20 CBOT soy 881.50 3.50 +0.40% -0.84% 894.71 47 CBOT rice 11.45 -$0.05 -0.43% -0.04% $11.78 40 WTI crude 55.00 -$0.23 -0.42% -3.68% $56.39 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.114 $0.001 +0.04% -0.23% USD/AUD 0.6779 0.003 +0.47% -0.31% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; editing by Uttaresh.V and Gopakumar Warrier)

GRAINS-Soybean rises on U.S.-China trade hopes, wheat up 1%

14 Aug 2019

* Soybeans up for 2nd session, easing trade tensions support * Corn firms after last 2 sessions of deep losses, wheat up 1% (Adds details, quote) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 14 Chicago soybean futures climbed for a second session on Wednesday, supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns over dry weather in parts of the U.S. Midwest. Corn gained ground on bargain-buying after dropping almost 10% in the last two sessions, the biggest two-day drop in six years, while wheat was up 1%. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade gained 0.2% at $8.91 a bushel by 0249 GMT, corn added 0.8% to $3.79-1/2 a bushel and wheat was up 1.2% at $4.77-1/2 a bushel. The corn market has lost nearly 10% in the last two sessions, the biggest since 2013. "There seems to be some support for beans on easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, although I think it's very early and this issue is very much still live," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. "There is plenty of room for caution." The Trump administration will delay imposing a 10% tariff on certain Chinese products, including laptops and cellphones, that had been scheduled to start next month, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said on Tuesday. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a telephone conversation with U.S. trade officials, China's Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Tuesday. Liu spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday cited China for not following through with expected large purchases of U.S. agricultural products, but appeared hopeful that Beijing's stance could change. Forecasts of dry weather in the U.S. Midwest provided additional support for the soybean market. Corn prices have been weighed down by expectations of a bigger U.S. crop. The USDA surprised grain markets on Monday by raising its outlook for this year's U.S. corn production as it reduced its estimate of rain-hit plantings by less than expected, while increasing its harvest yield projection. For the 2019-20 crop year, the corn harvest will total 13.901 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, the USDA predicted in its monthly supply and demand report. Ukrainian farmers have almost completed the 2019 wheat harvest, threshing 27.9 million tonnes from 98% of the sown area, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade corn and soyoil futures on Tuesday. They were net buyers of soybeans and soymeal, and even in wheat, traders said. Grains prices at 0249 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 477.50 5.50 +1.17% -4.40% 498.28 40 CBOT corn 379.50 3.00 +0.80% -9.16% 426.35 23 CBOT soy 891.00 2.00 +0.22% -0.08% 896.38 56 CBOT rice 11.60 $0.14 +1.22% +17.72% $10.31 51 WTI crude 56.47 -$0.63 -1.10% +3.61% $56.48 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.118 -$0.004 -0.33% -0.21% USD/AUD 0.6789 0.004 +0.55% +0.03% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Joseph Radford and Shounak Dasgupta)

GRAINS-Corn prices near 3-mth low on U.S. crop outlook, soybeans firm

13 Aug 2019

* Chicago corn futures down 2% to weakest since mid-May * Higher U.S. crop forecast drags down market * Soybeans rise 1.1% as USDA cuts production forecast (Adds comment, detail) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Aug 13 Chicago corn futures lost more ground on Tuesday, dropping to their lowest in nearly three months after a U.S. government forecast for higher-than-expected crop volumes. Soybeans rose more than 1%, underpinned by expectations of lower production, while wheat was little changed after Monday's biggest one-day loss since April 2016. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade had given up 1.7% to $3.86 a bushel by 0402 GMT, after dropping to its lowest since May 17 at $3.82-1/4 a bushel. Soybeans added 1% to $8.88-1/4 a bushel, while wheat gained 0.1% to $4.72 a bushel. "The market was shocked by the USDA's estimates of both area and yield," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Getting rid of that extra corn takes a lot more chewing, distilling and shipping than the market was expecting." The U.S. corn harvest will be bigger than previously forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday, as the government issued a surprise boost to its outlook despite concerns about a wet spring and dry summer. For the 2019/20 crop year, the corn harvest will total 13.901 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, the USDA predicted in its monthly supply and demand report. Wheat markets are also facing good world supplies and heavy export competition. Wheat harvesting in Europe is generally progressing well, with work in France almost finished. European Union soft wheat exports in the 2019/20 season that started on July 1 had reached 1.33 million tonnes by Aug. 11, down 30% compared with a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Monday. The USDA lowered its soybean crop estimate to 3.680 billion bushels from 3.845 billion bushels previously. Corn may fall further into a range of $3.50 to $3.71-3/4, as it has broken a support zone of $3.89-1/2 to $3.92-3/4, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters analyst for commodities technicals. It is formed by the 50% retracement of the uptrend from $3.14-3/4 to $4.64 and the 14.6% retracement of the downtrend from $8.49 to $3.14-3/4, he said. China's agriculture ministry on Monday said it had revised down its estimate for 2018/19 soybean imports to 83.5 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from last month's estimate, due to lower-than-expected shipments in July. The ministry also upgraded its estimate for 2018/19 corn imports to 4 million tonnes, an increase of 700,000 tonnes from the previous month. The revised estimate for corn imports was mainly due to a significant reduction in U.S. sorghum imports, it said. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said. They were net sellers of soyoil futures. Grains prices at 0402 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 472.00 0.25 +0.05% -5.51% 498.09 34 CBOT corn 386.00 -6.75 -1.72% -7.60% 426.57 22 CBOT soy 888.25 9.00 +1.02% -0.39% 896.28 45 CBOT rice 11.56 -$0.02 -0.13% +17.31% $10.31 47 WTI crude 54.81 -$0.12 -0.22% +0.57% $56.42 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.119 -$0.002 -0.22% -0.10% USD/AUD 0.6758 0.001 +0.09% -0.43% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Joseph Radford)

World News

Trump paints picture of unity at prickly G7 summit

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he was getting along well with Western allies at a G7 summit in France, dismissing reports of rifts among leaders and declaring that they "respect" the trade war between Washington and Beijing.