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Shreyashi Sanyal

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks slide on virus fears, Brazil's real at near two-month low

3:12pm GMT

* Brazil's real slips on rate outlook, current account data * China virus stokes fears of economic impact * Chilean peso tracks decline in copper prices By Shreyashi Sanyal Jan 27 Latin American stocks slid on Monday as investors fretted about the potential economic damage of China's coronavirus outbreak, while Brazil's real fell to its lowest level in nearly two months. Risk appetite around the globe was battered as investors fled to the safety of gold, the yen and Treasury notes, as the death toll from the virus rose to 81 and the virus spread to more than 10 countries. MSCI's index for Latin American stocks tumbled 2.8%, putting it on track for its worst day in more than five months. "The clear trigger is the 'risk off' fears, we've seen selling in equities, buying in safe havens, the news story is certainly about the coronavirus," said Guy Lebas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. Brazil's real led currencies in the region lower, with a 0.8% fall, as it hit its lowest level since early December. The Brazilian central bank's benchmark interest rate is expected to fall to 4.25% by year end, the bank's latest weekly survey of economists showed, while inflation forecasts declined for the fourth week in a row to a new low. Also adding strain to the currency was data which showed Brazil's balance of payments position with the rest of the world deteriorated last year, as a steep decline in the country's trade surplus contributed to the widest current account deficit in four years. The Chilean peso weakened 1.4% against the dollar, tracking a lower trend in prices of copper, the country's main export. The red metal was on track for its ninth consecutive session of falls, the longest losing streak in six years. A sharp move downward in crude prices hit the Colombian peso , which weakened to its lowest level in about one and a half months. Brazil's Bovespa index was knocked off record high levels after shedding 2.3% and eyed its biggest one-day percentage fall since early October. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1438 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1102.15 -1.54 MSCI LatAm 2811.46 -2.84 Brazil Bovespa 115616.26 -2.33 Mexico IPC 0.00 0 Chile IPSA 4571.20 -1.5 Argentina MerVal 38803.81 -2.791 Colombia COLCAP 1642.29 -0.34 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.2167 -0.77 Mexico peso 18.9130 -0.65 Chile peso 789.15 -1.54 Colombia peso 3398.34 -1.04 Peru sol 3.339 -0.48 Argentina peso 60.1100 -0.02 (interbank) (Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Karen Brettell in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

EMERGING MARKETS-Assets fall as China virus fears grow, S.African rand tumbles

9:29am GMT

Jan 27 Emerging market currencies and stocks fell broadly on Monday, as investors grappled with the potential economic impact of China's spreading virus outbreak.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX flat, headed for weekly gain, coronavirus weighs

24 Jan 2020

* Chile cenbank to hold rates through 2020 - poll * Brazil clocks strongest job growth last year since 2013 * WHO says virus outbreak a China emergency, not global By Shreyashi Sanyal Jan 24 Latin American currencies were flat on Friday, on track to end the week higher with investors watching developments related to the coronavirus outbreak. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the flu-like virus outbreak an "emergency in China" and not of international concern. This relieved some investors, yet many worried about the spread of the virus which had killed 26 people and infected more than 800, as of Thursday. Major Latin American currencies traded in tight ranges against the dollar, with the Chilean peso strengthening slightly. Chile's central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 1.75% in January, a poll of 62 traders showed, then keep it there through 2020 as it seeks to spur the ailing economy following months of unrest in the mining nation. The peso plummeted to historic lows in late November and December, prompting concerns of rising inflation. MSCI's index for Latin American currencies was up 0.04%. Brazil's real was flat, even as Economy Ministry figures showed 2019 marked the strongest annual job growth in the country since 2013, a sign that the economy's recovery from the last recession is finally picking up pace. "That are a lot of questions about what will happen to Brazilian debt over the next few years," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London. "What the markets are still waiting for is some more tangible evidence of some of the reforms being talked about like the tax reform and the public service reform." The Mexican peso eked out gains as Reuters reported U.S. President Donald Trump will sign a trade pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada on Wednesday during a ceremony at the White House. Colombia's peso edged higher as prices of oil, the country's main export, showed some signs of stabilization. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1422 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1124.05 0.17 MSCI LatAm 2918.53 -0.22 Brazil Bovespa 119037.13 -0.41 Mexico IPC - - Chile IPSA 4669.97 0.39 Argentina MerVal 41181.32 0.1 Colombia COLCAP 1648.18 0 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.1688 -0.10 Mexico peso 18.7669 -0.05 Chile peso 774.6 0.17 Colombia peso 3354.35 0.14 Peru sol 3.317 0.06 Argentina peso 60.0850 0.01 (interbank) (Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)

EMERGING MARKETS-Assets stable, still set for first weekly decline in more than a month

24 Jan 2020

Jan 24 Emerging market assets stabilised on Friday as investors took comfort from the World Health Organization confining an announcement of a coronavirus emergency to China, but were still set to end the week lower for the first time in more than a month.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks fall; Brazilian real rises for second day

23 Jan 2020

* Equity markets spooked by spread of China virus * Brazil to discuss cooperation with OPEC - energy minister * Colombian peso slips, mirroring lower oil prices By Shreyashi Sanyal Jan 23 Stocks across Latin America fell on Thursday as fears mounted over the spread of a new flu-like virus in China, while Brazil's real strengthened as the country looks at the possibility of cooperating with OPEC. China locked down two cities at the epicenter of a coronavirus outbreak that has killed 17 people and infected more than 630. Market participants are also especially wary due to the onset of the Lunar New Year, which will see millions of Chinese preparing to travel domestically and abroad during the weeklong holidays, starting Friday. "Risk appetite is back under pressure again today as China's viral outbreak continues to dominate headlines," Ned Rumpeltin, European head of FX strategy at TD Securities, wrote in a note. Most stocks in the broader emerging markets lost ground as investors stepped away from making riskier bets, with MSCI's index for Latin American stocks down 0.4%. In a bright spot for those betting on Brazil's real, the currency of the region's biggest economy advanced, appearing set to rise for the second straight session. Brazil will discuss with Saudi Arabia later this year the possibility of cooperation with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as it aims to become one of the world's top five exporters during the next decade, its energy minister said. The Brazilian stock index took a hit, falling nearly 1% as heavyweight iron ore miner Vale weighed. Shanghai steel futures hit one-month lows. Colombia's peso slipped 0.5% against the dollar after prices of oil, the country's main export, fell more than 1%. The Mexican peso also weakened against the dollar on Thursday. Data showed Mexican consumer price inflation was very slightly above forecast in the first half of January, but remained close to the central bank's target rate. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1429 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1122.60 -0.9529 MSCI LatAm 2896.27 -0.41 Brazil Bovespa 117259.87 -0.96 Mexico IPC - - Chile IPSA 4659.13 -0.23 Argentina MerVal 42064.60 0.148 Colombia COLCAP 1650.36 0 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.1615 0.31 Mexico peso 18.7403 -0.32 Chile peso 770.5 0.01 Colombia peso 3349.94 -0.63 Peru sol 3.3158 -0.08 Argentina peso 60.0600 0.02 (interbank) (Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks out of gas as China virus fears worsen; lower oil prices hit rouble

23 Jan 2020

Jan 23 Most stocks in emerging markets fell on Thursday, as risk appetite took a back seat on rising fears over the spread of a new flu-like virus in China, while Russia's rouble lost ground tracking a decline in oil prices.

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real leads Latam FX higher as China virus scare eases

22 Jan 2020

* Brazil to start discussions on joining OPEC in July * China vows to tighten containment measures for virus * Argentine market braces as Buenos Aires deadline looms By Shreyashi Sanyal Jan 22 Brazil's real led Latin American currencies higher on Wednesday, as the country will start discussions on joining the OPEC, and as investor risk appetite grew due to China's attempts to contain a virus outbreak. Brazilian energy minister Bento Albuquerque said Brazil will start discussions on joining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries during a visit to Saudi Arabia in July. Its currency strengthened 0.6% to 4.1858 against the dollar, after two straight days of declines. Sao Paulo stocks rose 0.7%, leading the major regional markets. MSCI's index for Latin American equities rose 0.8%, a day after its biggest daily decline in two months. A day earlier, risk aversion hit global financial markets on concerns over a coronavirus outbreak in China. Deaths from the virus in China rose to nine on Wednesday with 470 confirmed cases but Beijing tightened containment measures in hospitals. Analysts say fears of a repeat of the SARS virus outbreak in 2003 are unfounded, with countries better equipped to fight an epidemic. "The spread of a new coronavirus across Asia and into the U.S. is clearly a major public health concern, but we suspect that its economic effects will be modest," said Jennifer McKeown, head of global economics at Capital Economics. "Even the significant economic disruption related to SARS turned out to be temporary and experts expect this disease to be less deadly and better contained." Investors were watching the Argentine peso, hours ahead of a deadline for creditors to green light or reject a plan by the province of Buenos Aires to delay a $250 million payment due on Jan. 26. Last year, the peso crashed due to concerns over politics in Argentina and whether the country would repay its debt obligations. The Mexican peso and the Chilean peso both firmed against the dollar, while stock markets in the two countries, remained mostly flat. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1451 GMT Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1134.53 0.6815 MSCI LatAm 2901.24 0.8 Brazil Bovespa 117855.86 0.71 Mexico IPC 45681.52 0.1 Chile IPSA 4689.27 -0.1 Argentina MerVal 41677.75 0.463 Colombia COLCAP 1655.56 0.13 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.1870 0.44 Mexico peso 18.7010 0.33 Chile peso 771.9 0.17 Colombia peso 3335.1 0.55 Peru sol 3.314 0.09 Argentina peso 60.1100 -0.02 (interbank) (Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks gain ground as China soothes worries about virus outbreak

22 Jan 2020

Jan 22 Emerging market stocks regained footing on Wednesday after China's response to contain a virus outbreak eased fears of a global pandemic, while the South African rand treaded water after a reading on inflation.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets keel as China virus sours risk appetite

21 Jan 2020

* Global markets spooked by China virus outbreak * Latam stocks index set to end three-day winning streak * Brazil's Vale drops; ex-CEO charged with homicide (Adds details, updates prices) By Shreyashi Sanyal and Ambar Warrick Jan 21 Stocks and currencies across Latin America fell on Tuesday, tracking a decline in broader emerging markets amid concerns over a flu-like coronavirus outbreak in China. Broader emerging market assets dropped as news of the contagion reminded investors of the economic fallout from the SARS crisis in 2003 that killed nearly 800 people, and led to a recession in Hong Kong. In Latin America, Brazilian stocks fell about 1.4%, their biggest intraday loss since late-November. Iron ore miner Vale was among the largest drags on the Bovespa after documents showed that prosecutors had charged 16 individuals with homicide over a Vale dam burst last year, including the company's then chief executive, Fabio Schvartsman. Brazil's real was slightly softer to the dollar. "The pace of inflows (to emerging markets) is likely to decelerate this week amid rising concerns about China’s coronavirus, which reportedly can be passed between humans," analysts at Rabobank wrote in a note. MSCI's index for Latin American stocks fell 1.5%, on track to snap a three-day winning streak. MSCI's index for currencies in Latin America dropped 0.3%. The risk averse mood was also backed by global growth fears after the International Monetary Fund trimmed back its global growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The reductions reflect the IMF's reassessment of economic prospects for a number of major emerging markets as it marked down growth forecasts for Chile due to social unrest and for Mexico, due to a continued weakness in investment. The Mexican peso and the Chilean peso both retreated against the dollar, while stock markets in the two countries also fell. Argentine stocks dropped more than 3%, while the peso dipped slightly as the country's government sought to push through legislation to help solve a mounting debt crisis. Argentina faces negotiations with creditors including the IMF to restructure about $100 billion in sovereign debt, which President Alberto Fernandez has said the country cannot afford to pay until it revives its stalled economy. Concerns over protectionist politics taking the forefront in Argentina had sparked a crash in the peso last year, as investors fretted over the country's ability to repay its debt obligations. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1911 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1126.50 -1.6741 MSCI LatAm 2884.51 -1.53 Brazil Bovespa 117229.66 -1.37 Mexico IPC 45666.31 -0.51 Chile IPSA 4693.16 -2.55 Argentina MerVal 41711.96 -3.117 Colombia COLCAP 1652.48 -0.23 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.1949 -0.18 Mexico peso 18.7240 -0.35 Chile peso 773.2 -0.49 Colombia peso 3353 -0.69 Peru sol 3.317 -0.03 Argentina peso 60.0950 -0.07 (interbank) (Reporting by Ambar Warrick and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru Editing by Nick Zieminski and Nick Macfie)

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets fall as China virus outbreak spurs risk-off mood

21 Jan 2020

* Global markets spooked by China virus outbreak * IMF trims back global growth forecasts * Latam stocks index set to end three-day winning streak By Shreyashi Sanyal Jan 21 Stocks and currencies across Latin America fell on Tuesday, as investors turned away from riskier assets on concerns over a mysterious flu-like virus outbreak in China, while a weak global growth forecast by the IMF added to the downbeat mood. Global financial markets were spooked after the death toll from the virus in China climbed to six on Tuesday as new cases surged beyond 300 and as officials confirmed the coronavirus strain is contagious between humans. "Risk appetite remains fragile this morning as contagion concerns from a viral outbreak in China ratcheted higher overnight. On that basis, we see merit in maintaining elements of a defensive posture in FX markets," Ned Rumpeltin, European head of FX strategy at TD Securities wrote in a note. MSCI's index for Latin American stocks fell 0.8%, on track to snap a three-day winning streak. MSCI's index for currencies in Latin America dropped 0.3%. The risk averse mood was also backed by global growth fears after the International Monetary Fund trimmed back its global growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The reductions reflect the IMF's reassessment of economic prospects for a number of major emerging markets as it marked down growth forecasts for Chile due to social unrest and for Mexico, due to a continued weakness in investment. The Mexican peso weakened 0.2% to 18.7021 against the dollar, while the Chilean peso firmed slightly. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1441 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1127.55 -1.5825 MSCI LatAm 2906.01 -0.8 Brazil Bovespa 118269.23 -0.5 Mexico IPC - - Chile IPSA 4777.68 -0.8 Argentina MerVal 42869.30 -0.429 Colombia COLCAP 1654.89 -0.09 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.1986 -0.26 Mexico peso 18.7033 -0.24 Chile peso 770.1 -0.09 Colombia peso 3343.1 -0.39 Peru sol 3.316 0.00 Argentina peso 59.9900 0.10 (interbank) (Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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