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Sumita Layek

PRECIOUS-Gold little changed ahead of Fed meeting, U.S. tariff deadline

10 Dec 2019

(Updates prices) * U.S. Fed's policy meeting set to begin later in the day * Palladium's next logical resistance level at $2,000- analyst * GRAPHIC-2019 asset returns: http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl By Sumita Layek Dec 10 Gold was trading in a tight range on Tuesday ahead of a two-day rate-setting meeting by the U.S. central bank, with investors awaiting clarity on whether a next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will come into effect this weekend. Spot gold was up 0.1% to $1,462.97 per ounce by 0734 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,467.30. "Both the events could be potential catalysts for gold, prices could go down if Fed is more hawkish biased. However, in case the U.S. and China can't reach any resolution and tariffs kick in, traders will move back to the safe-haven gold," said Margaret Yang Yan, a market analyst at CMC Markets. Both the United States and China have adopted a reconciliatory tone, with China saying it hoped to make a deal as soon as possible. President Donald Trump has said he was working with Beijing on an agreement ahead of new tariffs on $156 billion worth of Chinese imports on Dec.15. "Given that we are tilting toward some sort of the deal being reached with the Chinese, we think both gold and silver will struggle going into year-end and see a lower trading range for both over the next few weeks," said Edward Meir at ED&F Man Capital Markets in a note. The impact of a prolonged trade war on economic growth has led the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates three times this year, sparking demand for bullion. Gold is now on track for its best year in almost a decade. Most Fed policymakers have stressed on keeping the interest rates steady unless the economic outlook deteriorates. The Fed is widely expected keep interest rates on hold in the range of 1.50% to 1.75%. Spot gold is expected to test a support at $1,455 per ounce, a break below could cause a fall to $1,440, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Palladium rose 0.3% to $1,887.73 an ounce. Prices had climbed to an all-time high of $1,898.50 on Monday. The autocatalyst metal, used in vehicle exhausts to reduce harmful emissions, has risen more than 49% this year. "The rally so far this year has been driven by tight supply, reflected in a persistent back in the forward curve and elevated lease rates," Meir said. "We suspect that palladium has more room to run, with $2,000 looking to be the next logical resistance level." Silver rose 0.2% to $16.64, while platinum gained 0.6% to $900.03. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

PRECIOUS-Gold inches up on U.S.-China trade uncertainty; Fed meet in focus

09 Dec 2019

(Updates prices, adds comment and details) * U.S. Fed's two-day meeting to begin on Dec. 10 * China's Nov. imports rise, while exports fall * SPDR Gold holdings fall to lowest since Sept. 19 * GRAPHIC-2019 asset returns: http://tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl By Sumita Layek Dec 9 Gold inched up on Monday as investors awaited cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its monetary policy outlook, while trying to size up the chances of a new round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,462.10 per ounce by 0740 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,466.50. The U.S. Fed will meet on Dec.10-12 for an interest rate decision. Last week's booming jobs report was likely to give the central bank all it needs to stick to its plan not to cut rates further in the near future. Gold has gained about 14% this year after the Fed cut rates three times this year on the backdrop of a long-drawn trade war and its impact on economy. Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has said the Dec. 15 deadline is still in place for a new round of U.S. tariffs on about $156 billion worth of Chinese imports. "Markets are waiting to size up what happens. They're waiting both for the Fed meeting and some sort of last minute (U.S.-China) deal," said Ilya Spivak, a senior currency strategist at DailyFx. "We've seen that from this administration in White House, this kind of brinkmanship where they may decide to cancel tariffs at the last second by a tweet late night on Dec. 14." Investors also took stock of data from China that pointed to a growth in imports, although exports fell. This follows solid U.S. job growth in November, after which gold recorded its biggest daily percentage fall in a month. "Traders are unable to take a direction due to the upcoming events," said Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Financial Services, adding that a weaker dollar is helping the metal. Speculators upped their bullish positions in COMEX gold in the week to Dec. 3. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust fell to their lowest since Sept. 19 on Friday. Palladium rose 0.1% to $1,879.31 per ounce, having hit a record high at $1,880.65 on Friday. Silver rose 0.3% to $16.61, after touching its lowest since early August in the last session, while platinum eased 0.3% to $893.07. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

Gold prices tread water despite Trump's Latam tariffs

03 Dec 2019

Gold prices were trading in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors stayed on the sidelines, even as U.S. President Donald Trump's move to slap tariffs on Brazil and Argentina stoked fresh global trade tensions.

PRECIOUS-Gold prices tread water despite Trump's Latam tariffs

03 Dec 2019

(Updates prices, adds comment and details) * SPDR Gold holdings down 0.7% on Monday, lowest since Sept. 19 * Gold Specs cut bullish positions in week to Nov. 26 -CFTC By Sumita Layek Dec 3 Gold prices were trading in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors stayed on the sidelines, even as U.S. President Donald Trump's move to slap tariffs on Brazil and Argentina stoked fresh global trade tensions. Spot gold was unchanged at $1,462.58 per ounce by 0803 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,468.20. Trump on Monday announced tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina "effective immediately", opening new fronts in his trade war. "Prices haven't risen because investment demand for gold is not there," said Jigar Trivedi, a commodities analyst at Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers. "In SPDR gold exchange-traded funds (ETF), flows have reduced, investor demand has faltered and that's why prices have not reacted to the trade uncertainties." Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust , fell 0.7% to 889.16 tonnes on Monday, their lowest since Sept. 19. Speculators also cut their bullish positions in COMEX gold in the week to Nov. 26, data showed on Monday. "People are expecting the U.S.-China trade war to de-escalate, plus the U.S. Federal Reserve has signalled that there will be no further rate cuts unless there is a U-turn in the economy, so sentiment will be bearish (in gold)," Trivedi said. The Fed has cut interest rates three times this year and is due to meet on Dec. 10-11 for its next policy meeting. Trump on Monday said U.S. legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong did not make trade negotiations with China easier, but added he believes Beijing still wants a deal. Gold has risen about 14% so far this year, mainly due to the 17-month-old trade dispute. "After strong Chinese manufacturing data, market is a bit down on gold, and slowly gold prices should move in a downward direction," said Vandana Bharti, assistant vice-president of commodity research at SMC Comtrade. China's factory activity unexpectedly expanded at the quickest pace in almost three years in November, a private business survey showed on Monday. On the technical front, "the metal continues to hold range bound heading into year-end, seemingly well supported around $1,450, however lacking any meaningful demand to break top-side resistance through $1,465 - $1,470 and $1,480 the key level above this," MKS PAMP said in a note. Elsewhere, palladium was flat at $1,852.21 per ounce, after scaling an all-time peak in the previous session at $1,861.71. Silver rose 0.1% to $16.92, while platinum was unchanged at $897.97. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Christian Schmollinger)

Gold slips on firm dollar, positive China factory data

02 Dec 2019

Gold prices fell on Monday as investors turned to riskier assets on signs of economic growth following reports of an expanding Chinese factory sector and as a rising dollar reduced demand.

PRECIOUS-Gold slips on firm dollar, positive China factory data

02 Dec 2019

(Updates prices) * Gold to trade between $1,450-$1,500/oz until year-end- analyst * China's Nov factory activity expands at quickest pace in 3 years * U.S. manufacturing PMI data due later in the day By Sumita Layek Dec 2 Gold prices fell on Monday as investors turned to riskier assets on signs of economic growth following reports of an expanding Chinese factory sector and as a rising dollar reduced demand. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,456.70 per ounce by 0802 GMT, having earlier touched its highest since Nov. 22. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,463. An unexpected expansion in factory activity during November in China, the world's second-largest economy and biggest gold user, spurred investors into equity markets. This followed official government data on Saturday that also showed an expansion. "Positive data from China creates an optimism that the Chinese market is improving, that gives people confidence to invest in riskier assets, and in turn, reduces the safe-haven demand for gold," said Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Financial Services. Manufacturing surveys for Europe and United States are due to be released later on Monday. Investor demand for gold was further pressured by the rising dollar, which makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The uncertainty around a resolution to the 17-month-old trade dispute between the United States and China has supported gold, with reports that a preliminary agreement has now stalled because of U.S. legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong and Chinese demands that the United States roll back its tariffs as part of phase one deal. "Nothing particularly has really changed (on the trade front) from last week, the market remains in the dark about how things will progress. Investor appetite for gold is just waning a little bit on lack of direction," ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said. Gold has risen more than 13% this year mainly due to the trade dispute driving demand for safe assets. "The fundamentals are still quite supportive, this lull is not going to last too much longer. Maybe into year end we will see gold prices recommit the uptrend we saw earlier this year," Hynes said, adding until then gold will trade between $1,450-$1,500. Spot gold may test a support at $1,455 per ounce, a break below which could cause a fall to $1,440, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Elsewhere, silver fell 1% to $16.85 per ounce, platinum was down 1.3% to $888.50 and palladium was slipped 0.2% at $1,838. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Kirsten Donovan)

Indian gold buying ticks up on price drop; demand lags in other hubs

29 Nov 2019

BENGALURU/MUMBAI Gold was sold at a premium this week in India as a dip in prices prompted purchases of the precious metal, while demand was soft in other Asian hubs as interest for the metal waned going into the year-end season.

Asia Gold-Indian gold buying ticks up on price drop; demand lags in other hubs

29 Nov 2019

* Price drop below $1,400/oz likely to induce buying- analysts

PRECIOUS-Gold little changed amid trade deal doubts; set for worst month in 3 years

29 Nov 2019

(Updates prices) * Palladium climbs to record $1,844.50/oz, up for 4th month * Break below $1,445/oz for gold could cause correction - Fitch * Dollar set for highest weekly finish against yen since May By Sumita Layek Nov 29 Gold prices were little changed on Friday as investors refrained from making big bets amid doubts whether the United States and China could seal a trade deal. The metal was, however, on track for its biggest monthly decline in three years, as upbeat comments by both countries earlier this month had raised hopes of an interim deal. Palladium scaled a new high of $1,844.50 an ounce, extending its record-setting run on supply deficit. Spot gold was flat at $1,458.47 per ounce by 0749 GMT, having shed 0.2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,458. "(Gold) Market definitely is divided because previously most people were thinking that a trade deal is going to happen, and now they are not sure which side it is going to go, and that reflects in the trading prices," said Brian Lan of Singapore dealer GoldSilver Central. The dollar was set for its highest weekly finish against the yen since May, while global shares stalled just short of an all-time peak as some doubts remained about an interim deal. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed into law congressional legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong, prompting Beijing to warn of "firm counter measures". The signing of the bill is a provocative but symbolic move, said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, adding that: "China's response was also largely a symbolic retaliation, this makes no impact to the trade negotiations." For the month, prices were down almost 4%, their biggest since November 2016, as earlier optimism about a deal between Beijing and Washington dampened demand for the safe-haven metal. However, gold, considered a safe store of value during economic or political uncertainties, has gained more than 13% this year, mainly due to the tariff dispute. "A break above $1,500/oz would suggest the potential for additional upside in prices. In contrast, a break below $1,445/oz would point to a more significant correction underway, and we would expect further losses for gold prices," Fitch Solutions said in a note. Among other precious metals, palladium fell 0.4% to $1,834.14 per ounce, after touching an all-time peak. The metal, used in vehicle exhausts to reduce harmful emissions, has gained about 45% this year and was headed for its fourth consecutive monthly gain on sustained supply issues. Platinum shed 0.3% to $898.72 per ounce and silver rose 0.6% to $16.96. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Aditya Soni)

PRECIOUS-Gold gains as Hong Kong tensions fuel trade deal doubts

28 Nov 2019

(Updates prices, adds comment and details) * China condemns U.S. move, warns of "firm counter measures" * Palladium hits all-time high of $1,836.61 * Yen gains versus dollar By Sumita Layek Nov 28 Gold prices rose on Thursday as investors bought the safe-haven metal on doubts about whether the United States and China will seal a trade deal after President Donald Trump signed a legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters. Palladium retreated slightly after hitting an all-time peak of $1,836.61 earlier in the session. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,455.63 per ounce by 0659 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,454.80. Trump on Wednesday signed a legislation into law that requires the State Department to certify, at least annually, that Hong Kong retains enough autonomy to justify favourable U.S. trading terms. Beijing condemned the move and said it would take "firm counter measures." "With the latest developments of Trump signing the Hong Kong bill, there are doubts that there will be any deal, even a first phase," said Jigar Trivedi, a commodities analyst at Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers. "Even though they've said they will sign a deal by year-end, they've not talked about the venue, or who will go to whom. So, I don't think the trade deal will be signed so easily and gold will be supported." Asian shares fell, while the safe-haven yen rose against the dollar on concerns that the protracted tariff dispute between the world's two biggest economies could become more complicated. Gold eased 0.5% in the last session on a raft of upbeat economic data from the United States. Economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, weekly jobless claims fell, while new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased. "Global growth concerns have definitely eased, but not gone," said John Sharma, an economist at National Australia Bank, adding gold would remain supported even if an interim deal is passed since the most complex issues, such as intellectual property, have been pushed down the road. Gold, considered a safe store of value during economic or political uncertainties, has gained more than 13% this year, mainly due to the tariff dispute. Among other precious metals, palladium shed 0.1% to $1,831.69 per ounce. The autocatalyst metal used in vehicle exhaust systems to reduce harmful emissions has risen about 45% this year on a supply crunch. "Strong demand from China and sluggish supply growth have tightened palladium's physical market this year...," ANZ said in a note. Platinum was flat at $892.95 per ounce and silver rose 0.1% to $16.96 per ounce. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Aditya Soni)

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