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US vote: markets' vision of a post-election world

Sunday, November 06, 2016 - 01:42

Clinton - or Trump? It's not a choice many US voters relish - and for investors it poses even more difficult decisions on how to hedge against the unforeseen. Ivor Bennett canvasses opinion from leading analysts on what it means for markets, and for the global economy.

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Clinton or Trump? Some voters may be undecided, but for markets, it's always been a no brainer. (SOUNDBITE) (English) PANMURE GORDON CHIEF ECONOMIST, SIMON FRENCH, SAYING: "She's a known political candidate, with a known track record, who's shown she can deal with Congress." But no one's sitting as comfortably as many thought they might. Lessons learnt perhaps after Brexit. (SOUNDBITE) (English) FERN WEALTH, DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, ALASTAIR MCCAIG, SAYING: "I think it would be naive for market observers not to be a little bit more cautious and reduce exposure." That's because even if Clinton does win, it may not be an easy ride. (SOUNDBITE) (English) PANMURE GORDON CHIEF ECONOMIST, SIMON FRENCH, SAYING: "A 2020 presidential election, when she may potentially be a more unpopular 2nd term president, i think that will constrain her ability to the kind of stuff she wants to do." But the alternative could be a whole other level. Barclays strategists predicting a double digit fall on the S&P 500 if Trump wins. (SOUNDBITE) (English) PANMURE GORDON CHIEF ECONOMIST, SIMON FRENCH, SAYING: "It gives a face to the pushback against globalisation." (SOUNDBITE) (English) FERN WEALTH, DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, ALASTAIR MCCAIG, SAYING: "Mexico having such a large proportion of their exports going to the US, have arguably the most to lose. " (SOUNDBITE) (English) CIBC, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, JEREMY STRETCH, SAYING: "China, were he to name them as a currency manipulator on day 1, or something similar to that as he's perhaps suggested, would be rather damaged so in that context you would argue that global trade would be rather compromised." But that's if we get the Trump we saw at his rallies. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CIBC, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, JEREMY STRETCH, SAYING: "We could well see a different Trump in the White House. He could be a great tax-cutter." (SOUNDBITE) (English) PANMURE GORDON CHIEF ECONOMIST, SIMON FRENCH, SAYING: "He is a deal maker, he is a businessman, and will recognise, with Congress unlikely to support some of this more outlandish suggestions, he's likely to cut a deal and therefore to be somewhat neutralised." But for many, it's still not a risk worth taking.