(Adds more data, table, traders)
MOSCOW, Sept 14 Russian oil exports will rise by 50,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter on bigger shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Central Europe and re-exports from the Polish port of Gdansk, a schedule showed on Friday.
The quarterly export scheduled by pipeline monopoly Transneft (TRNF_p.MM) showed overall seaborne and pipeline exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union will amount to 51.55 million tonnes or 4.11 million barrels per day, versus 4.06 million bpd in the third quarter.
Russian oil export duties will hit an all-time high from October, following a rise in global prices in previous months, but traders said this was unlikely to stop exports from rising given the continued rally in global crude prices.
"This will be a tough quarter, especially October. People rushed to evacuate as much crude as possible before the introduction of new duties, so stocks are empty now," said a trader with a Russian major.
"But it turned out that exports will continue to remain attractive, which means domestic prices will also skyrocket," he added.
Despite the expected rise in exports, the fourth quarter schedule is much lower than the all-time high of 4.45 million bpd seen in July-September 2006, as Russian firms increasingly tend to refine crude at home.
The schedule showed exports from the Black Sea ports of Novorossiisk will remain flat, but will drop by 60,000 bpd from Russia's top Baltic Sea port of Primorsk as ice conditions will soon start restricting the access of tankers to the port.
Shipments from Tuapse will fall slightly as some traders suspect volumes could be diverted to Rosneft's nearby Tuapse refinery, which is being expanded.
Ukraine's Black Sea port of Yuzhny will keep volumes unchanged while neighbouring Odessa will cut loadings.
LUKOIL GERMAN CUT
The rise in exports will mainly occur on the Druzhba pipeline to central Europe as Poland, Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia will get more volumes.
Polish Baltic Sea port of Gdansk will almost double re-exports of Russian oil following very poor allocations in the two previous quarters.
Shipments to Germany will rise after a dispute between Russia's second largest oil producer LUKOIL (LKOH.MM) and the monopoly importer of Russian crude to Germany, trading firm Sunimex, cut exports in the previous quarter.
LUKOIL has said it was unhappy with prices and wanted to clinch direct deals with German refineries of BP (BP.L) and Total (TOTF.PA) rather than export crude via Sunimex.
It cut supplies in July but reached a new pricing deal in August, saying deliveries would return to normal.
The schedule, however, showed that despite a planned increase of Russian crude deliveries to Germany to 5.7 million tonnes from 5.45 million in the third quarter, LUKOIL's share would be cut to 1.15 million tonnes from the planned 1.8 million.
The volumes will be redistributed among other producers - Surgut (SNGS.MM), Slavneft and TNK-BP TNBPI.RTS, Gazprom Neft.
On the CIS front, supplies will remain little changed to Kazakhstan and Belarus, while in Ukraine LUKOIL will supply an additional 700,000 tonnes to its Odessa plant, which will come out of a major upgrade.
Following is a table of shipments by ports and destinations (in millions of tonnes):
Q4'07 Q3'07 Q2'07 Q1'07 Q4'06 Novorossiisk 10.92 10.84 11.03 11.10 11.40 Tuapse 0.95 1.13 1.20 1.23 1.23 Germany 5.70 5.45 5.82 5.56 5.98 Poland 4.60 4.40 4.84 4.61 4.94 Czech Rep 1.00 0.95 1.31 1.12 1.35 Slovakia 1.50 1.30 1.55 1.24 1.20 Hungary 1.75 1.70 1.75 1.75 1.75 Butinge 0 0 0 0 Lithuania (Mazeikiu refinery) 0 0 0 0 Odessa 2.40 2.70 2.70 2.90 3.80 Primorsk 18.38 19.08 18.66 18.00 17.00 Gdansk 2.10 1.15 1.84 2.32 1.86 Yuzhny 2.25 2.25 1.77 2.25 3.70 TOTAL 51.55 50.91 52.46 52.10 54.21 Belarus Naftan 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.20 1.84 Mozyr 2.25 2.08 2.25 2.20 2.16 Ukraine Kremenchug 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.50 Lynos 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.50 Odessa 0.70 0 0 0 0 Kazakhstan Pavlodar 1.20 1.05 1.20 0.90 0.90