Analysis - Some German red lines may not be so red

BERLIN Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:30pm GMT

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BERLIN (Reuters) - At first sight, Germany appears to have blocked all exits from the euro zone's blazing sovereign debt inferno. On closer inspection, some German "red lines" may be less red than others.

If Chancellor Angela Merkel wins acquiescence from European Union partners to a treaty change Berlin is seeking to impose intrusive fiscal discipline on "debt sinners," aides hint she will permit bolder measures to fight the crisis.

Those could include more European Central Bank buying of stressed countries' bonds in the short run, in tandem with bond insurance by the euro zone rescue fund, and accepting the idea of common euro zone "stability bonds" as a long-term goal.

"Common stability bonds in my eyes are neither good nor bad as such," said Peter Altmaier, parliamentary business manager of Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and one of her most seasoned European policy experts.

"It depends entirely on the conditions and the use," he told Reuters in an interview.

In a flurry of recent statements, Merkel has opposed all the widely mooted short-term options for decisive action to stop an accelerating debt market meltdown.

"The current Catch-22 is that all good solutions for the euro crisis are not legal in Germany," said Ulrike Guerot, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

The chancellor has said the EU treaty bars the ECB from acting as a lender of last resort and printing money to buy government debt. She has rejected joint "euro bonds," dismissed a proposal to mutualise the euro zone's debt stock, and rebuffed attempts to allow the bloc's rescue fund to borrow from the ECB or the IMF.

Yet at the same time, she declared this week that the only answer to the crisis was "more Europe" and won endorsement from her party to press for a fully fledged European political union based around the euro zone.

HOMEWORK

The official line in Berlin is that euro zone weaklings must do their homework by adopting austerity measures and tough economic reforms to recover lost competitiveness, and that the bond market will calm down when they do so.

Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has taken an even harder line, saying the ECB should be looking to stop its current limited purchases of troubled countries' bonds because it is dulling the market incentive to carry out those reforms.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday neither euro zone governments nor financial markets should expect the ECB to step in and solve the sovereign debt crisis alone.

"There is no pressure on the ECB to unleash all (its) firepower," Schaeuble told a European Banking Congress. "If we did that, calm would last for a few weeks at most."

Determined not to be pushed around by financial markets, Merkel seems reluctant to acknowledge in public the urgency of the threat to the survival of the euro zone.

The borrowing costs of almost all euro zone states, even those previously seen as safe such as France, Austria and the Netherlands, have spiked in the last two weeks as panicky investors dump paper no longer seen as risk-free.

Italian bond yields have leapt to levels above 7 percent widely seen as unbearable over the long term despite on-off intervention by the ECB to buy limited quantities.

Yet German officials see the higher bond yields as a boon because they are forcing governments from Rome to Paris to push through long overdue fiscal and structural reforms. They want to see more such reforms, including from the French.

One Berlin source described the bond market as an "ally" in that drive.

NO GROUNDS FOR HYSTERIA?

Echoing Merkel, German media and politicians are more focussed on Berlin's battle to impose German fiscal discipline on its partners than on the risk of a euro zone meltdown.

"No grounds for hysteria," the mass circulation Bild daily proclaimed on Friday.

Altmaier said Merkel wanted to make European partners finally live up to the fundamental trade-off that underpinned the birth of the single currency.

"When the euro was introduced by the Maastricht treaty in 1992, there was a historic compromise," he said.

"1) The awfully strong deutschemark was abolished, and 2) German stability culture would be implemented Europe-wide. The first part was implemented. The second part is still valid and binding in the treaty, but it hasn't yet been implemented."

Merkel is impatient to get the 440-billion-euro (376.9 billion pound) European Financial Stability Facility up and running as an insurer of euro zone bonds.

Once it is operational -- the target date is early December -- and investors see euro zone governments busily doing their "homework," she seems to believe markets will settle down.

Some of her advisers are privately less sanguine.

"I think time is running out," one senior aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Something has to be done. It's a question of weeks."

Asked if that might entail larger-scale ECB bond buying without the central bank "sterilising" all its purchases by taking in equivalent amounts from the market at tenders, another official said that was "a decision for the central bank. You won't hear us say anything against that."

The government might not object, but the Bundesbank, with its historic opposition to "printing money" at the risk of stoking inflation, would be likely to oppose such a move vehemently, a central bank source said.

The only exception might be if recession were causing a sharp contraction in the money supply, he said, adding: "We're not there yet."

SPARKOMMISSAR

Germany does not want to show its hand on crisis management steps until it has secured commitments from its partners to the changes Merkel seeks in the EU treaty to entrench intrusive fiscal supervision.

An amended article would create a European budget tsar, unofficially dubbed the "Sparkommissar" (savings commissioner), with the power to annul euro zone governments' budgets if they breach EU fiscal rules.

The watchdog would be able to haul delinquent governments before the European Court of Justice, which could impose fines and order compliance, as in competition and antitrust cases.

Schaeuble has said Germany wants that amendment in place by the end of next year. Merkel's vision of a closer political union would be the object of a second, more ambitious phase of treaty change starting with a parliamentary convention perhaps in 2013, officials said.

Guerot worries that Berlin, once the gentle giant of Europe, is now bullying its partners in a way that will store up decades of resentment and hostility.

"This will backfire on us terribly in two or three years time. Do we think everyone will continue to like us, buy BMWs and welcome us on their beaches if we go on behaving like this?" she asked.

But Altmaier says pro-European Germans, like himself, have had their fingers burnt by watching former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi go back on his promises as soon as the European Central Bank started buying Italian bonds.

"After the experience with Berlusconi in August, I can't see any party in Germany publicly pleading the case of euro bonds for the time being," he said.

(Additional reporting by Andreas Rinkem Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin in Berlin and Julien Toyer in Brussels; Writing by Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock)

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