(Refiles to fix 2007 probability in paragraph 14)
* Draft report outlines solutions to climate change
* World doing too little to meeting temperature goal-UN
* Suggestions include burying emissions, planting more trees
By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle
OSLO, Jan 15 Governments may have to extract
vast amounts of greenhouse gases from the air by 2100 to achieve
a target for limiting global warming, backed by trillion-dollar
shifts towards clean energy, a draft U.N. report showed on
A 29-page summary for policymakers, seen by Reuters, says
most scenarios show that rising world emissions will have to
plunge by 40 to 70 percent between 2010 and 2050 to give a good
chance of restricting warming to U.N. targets.
The report, outlining solutions to climate change, is due to
be published in Germany in April after editing by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It will be the
third in a series by the IPCC, updating science from 2007.
It says the world is doing too little to achieve a goal
agreed in 2010 of limiting warming to below 2 degrees (3.6
Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, seen as a threshold for
dangerous floods, heatwaves, droughts and rising sea levels.
To get on track, governments may have to turn ever more to
technologies for "carbon dioxide removal" (CDR) from the air,
ranging from capturing and burying emissions from coal-fired
power plants to planting more forests that use carbon to grow.
Most projects for capturing carbon dioxide from power plants
are experimental. Among big projects, Saskatchewan Power
in Canada is overhauling its Boundary Dam power plant
to capture a million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.
And, if the world overshoots concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere consistent with the 2C goal, most
scenarios for getting back on track "deploy CDR technologies to
an extent that net global carbon dioxide emissions become
negative" before 2100, it says.
Temperatures have already risen by 0.8C (1.4F) since the
To limit warming, the report estimates the world would have
to invest an extra $147 billion a year in low-carbon energies,
such as wind, solar or nuclear power from 2010 to 2029.
At the same time, investments in fossil fuel energy would
have to be reduced by $30 billion annually. And several hundred
billion dollars a year would have to go on energy efficiency in
major sectors such as transport, buildings and industry.
By contrast, it said that global annual investments in the
energy system are now about $1.2 trillion.
And it says there are huge opportunities for cleaning up,
for instance by building cities that use less energy for a
rising world population. "Most of the world's urban areas have
yet to be constructed," it says.
Overall, the report estimates that the costs of combating
global warming would reduce global consumption of goods and
services by between 1 and 4 percent in 2030, 2-6 percent in 2050
and 2-12 percent in 2100, compared to no action.
The IPCC said in September that it is at least 95 percent
probable that human activities, led by the burning of fossil
fuels, are the dominant cause of global warming since the 1950s,
up from 90 percent in a 2007 assessment.
The world has agreed to work out a global U.N. deal by the
end of 2015, entering into force from 2020, to fight climate
change. But progress has been sluggish.
"Global greenhouse gases have risen more rapidly between
2000 and 2010," the draft says, with greater reliance on coal
than in previous decades. China, the United States and the
European Union are the top emitters.
The IPCC cautioned that the findings in the draft, dated
Dec. 17, were subject to change. "This is a work in progress
which will be discussed and revised in April," said Jonathan
Lynn, spokesman for the IPCC in Geneva.
The report adds many details to earlier drafts.
The IPCC's credibility suffered in 2007 after
one of its reports wrongly said that Himalayan glaciers could
all melt by 2035, centuries earlier than experts reckon.
The draft says that only the most radical curbs outlined in
an IPCC report in September would give a better than 66 percent
chance of keeping temperature rises below 2C. The scenario
corresponds to greenhouse gas concentrations of 430 to 480 parts
per million in the atmosphere - up from about 400 now.
(Editing by Alison Williams)